76.        In this argument the author reasons that a sequel to a popular movie will be
profitable because the original movie was profitable and because books based on the
characters of the movie are consistently bestsellers. This argument is unconvincing for
several reasons.
      In the first place, a great deal of empirical evidence shows that sequels are often
not as profitable as the original movie. For example, none of the "Superman" movie
sequels even approached the success of the original movie. Accordingly, the mere¹ fact
that the first movie was successful does not guarantee that movies based upon it will
also be profitable.
      In the second place, a movie's financial success is a function of many elements in
addition to well-liked characters. Admittedly, the fact that the books based on the
characters of the original film are bestsellers bodes² well for the movie's commercial
prospects³. However, unless the original cast and production team are involved in
making the sequel, there is a good chance it will not be financially successful.
      Finally, another important element in creating a successful movie is the script. The
transformation⁴ of a popular book into a popular movie script is a difficult process.
Examples of best-selling books that were not made into successful movies are
commonplace. Obviously, the success of the sequel that Vista⁵ is planning will depend in
great part on the screenwriter's ability to capture the elements of the story that make the
books popular. Since the difficulties inherent in this process make it hard to predict
whether the result will be a success or a failure, the conclusion that the sequel will be
profitable is presumptuous⁶.
      In conclusion this is an unconvincing argument. To strengthen the argument, it
would be necessary to provide assurances that the original cast and production team will
be involved in the project and that the script will capture and develop the particular
elements responsible for the books' popularity

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