孙远的研究生管理专业入学考试作文讲义(3)a
文章来源: 文章作者: 发布时间:2007-09-11 09:18 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
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The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum1: “On average, 9 out of every 1000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines in 1993 filed a complaint about our luggage-handing procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our
goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia s passengers.”

Discuss how logically convincing you find this argument. In explaining your point of view, be sure to analyze2 the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. Also discuss what, if anything, would make the argument more sound and persuasive3, or would help you to better evaluate its conclusion.

Student Essay

In Avia Airlines s survey, nearly 1 present of its passengers were unhappy with its baggage-handling procedures. The result sounds good. But the small pool of samples in regard with all passengers, the weakness of procedure of complaint, and other reasons below will weaken the result, or draw to an opposite conclusion .

Avia Airlines can only survive by transporting hundreds of thousands of passengers each years. Many passengers who were not satisfied with its baggage-handling procedures maybe did not write down a complaint. Assuming that only one percent of those unsatisfied passengers complained in written forms, the number of unsatisfied would be 900 out of every 1000 passenger. It is a horrible ratio. Avia Airlines could be murdered by the remaining 899 unsatisfied ones.

To 1000, 9 seems a very small ratio. But if the first of the nine unsatisfied passengers is President Clinton, the story is attactive to most reporters. In some hours or days, Avia Arline will exist in newspapers, magazines, TV sports, reports and Internet. This kind of free advertisement will surely bomb AA to sky.

Avia Airlines has too many competitors in and out of USA. Clients of other Airlines, for instance, Singapore. Airlines or Japan Airlines may have no complaints about baggage-handling procedures. AA may gradually loose more and more of its passengers and die out.

So AA s conclusion would. be absurd through reasoning. Unsatisfied passengers who did not complain, the famous persons who complained, and competitors with no unsatisfied passengers all will make disastrous4 result for the Avia Airlines. So a review of the procedure is very important to its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of passengers.

Revised Essay

In this argument, the arguer concludes that a review of Avia Airline s baggage-handling procedures will not further its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia passengers. To support this conclusion, the arguer points out that only one percent of passengers who traveled on Avia last year filed a complaint. In addition, the arguer reasons that the great majority of Avia passengers are happy with baggage handling at the airline.

This argument suffers from two critical flaws. In the first place, the argument turns on the assumption that the 99 percent of Avia passengers who did not complain were happy with theairline s baggage-handling procedures. However, the arguer provides no evidence to support this assumption. The fact that, on average, 9 out of 1000 passengers took the time and effort to formally complain indicates nothing about the experiences or attitudes of the remaining 991. It is possible that many passengers were displeased5 but too busy to formally complain, while others had no opinion at all. Lacking more complete information about passengers attitudes, we cannot assume that the great majority of passengers who did not complain were happy.

In the second place, in the absence of information about the number of passengers per flight and about the complaint records of competing airlines, the statistics presented in the memorandum might distort the seriousness of the problem. Given that most modern aircrafts carry as many as 300 to 500 passengers, it is possible that Avia received as many as 4 or 5 complaints per flight. The arguer unfairly trivializes this record.

Moreover, the arguer fails to compare Avia s record with those of its competitors. It is possible that a particular competitor received virtually no baggage-handling complaints last year. If so, Avia s one percent complaint rate might be significant enough to motivate customers to switch to another airline.



点击收听单词发音收听单词发音  

1 memorandum aCvx4     
n.备忘录,便笺
参考例句:
  • The memorandum was dated 23 August,2008.备忘录上注明的日期是2008年8月23日。
  • The Secretary notes down the date of the meeting in her memorandum book.秘书把会议日期都写在记事本上。
2 analyze RwUzm     
vt.分析,解析 (=analyse)
参考例句:
  • We should analyze the cause and effect of this event.我们应该分析这场事变的因果。
  • The teacher tried to analyze the cause of our failure.老师设法分析我们失败的原因。
3 persuasive 0MZxR     
adj.有说服力的,能说得使人相信的
参考例句:
  • His arguments in favour of a new school are very persuasive.他赞成办一座新学校的理由很有说服力。
  • The evidence was not really persuasive enough.证据并不是太有说服力。
4 disastrous 2ujx0     
adj.灾难性的,造成灾害的;极坏的,很糟的
参考例句:
  • The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
  • Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨,血本无归。
5 displeased 1uFz5L     
a.不快的
参考例句:
  • The old man was displeased and darted an angry look at me. 老人不高兴了,瞪了我一眼。
  • He was displeased about the whole affair. 他对整个事情感到很不高兴。
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