16. The following appeared as part of an article in the education section of a Waymarsh City newspaper.
“Throughout the last two decades, those who earned graduate degrees found it very difficult to get jobs teaching their academic specialties¹ at the college level. Those with graduate degrees from Waymarsh University had an especially hard time finding such jobs. But better times are coming in the next decade for all academic job seekers, including those from Waymarsh. Demographic trends indicate that an increasing number of people will be reaching college age over the next ten years; consequently, we can expect that the job market will improve dramatically for people seeking college-level teaching positions in their fields.”
Waymarsh城日报教育版的一篇文章：
过去的20年内，研究生毕业生发现找到在大学教授他们的学术专长的工作是很困难的。那些从Waymarsh获得研究生学位的要找到这类工作尤其困难。但在下个10年，寻找学术工作的人（包括那些Waymarsh大学的）的好日子要来了。人口统计趋势显示达到上大学年龄的人将在未来10年增加。我们可预期对那些在他们的领域寻找大学教学工作的人来说，工作市场将显著增大。
1.      适龄人口增加不一定上大学人数就一定增加
2.      就算上大学人数增加需要的大学老师也不一定增加
3.      就算需要的老师增加,waymarsh的就业也不见得会水涨船高.
 
1，             人口增加也不一定都上大学。很可能都选择了就业。
2，             even if we grant the preceding assumption上大学的人多了不一定需要更多老师，很可能大学通过增大一个班人数的方式，保持原有老师数；
3，             就算需要GRADUATED DEGREE的人，也不代表W也会benefit from this trend，缺少信息，它可能是一个质量不好的大学，学校不会从这里的人中挑选。foretold² regarding the employability
 
Demographic trends that indicate an increase in the number of college-aged people over the next ten years lead the author to predict an improved job market for all people seeking college-level teaching positions in their academic disciplines. Moreover, the author argues that since Waymarsh University students with advanced degrees had an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs in the past, these trends portend³ better times ahead for Waymarsh graduates. This argument is problematic in three important respects.
First, the author assumes that an increase in the number of college-aged people over the next decade will necessarily result in an increase in the number of people who attend college during this period. While this is a reasonable assumption, it is by no means a certainty. For example, a world war or economic depression in the next decade would certainly nullify this expectation.
Second, even if we grant the preceding assumption, we must also consider the additional assumption that increased university enrollments will lead to an increase in teaching positions in all fields. However, it might turn out that some teaching specialties are in greater demand than others in the future, resulting in a disproportionate number of teaching positions available in various fields. Consequently, persons trained in some fields might find it more difficult, if not impossible, to find teaching jobs in the future.
Finally, little can be foretold regarding the employability of Waymarsh graduates in the future based on the information provided in the argument. Lacking information about the reasons why Waymarsh graduates had an especially difficult time finding teaching jobs, it is difficult to assess their prospects⁴ for the future. It is probable, however, that since Waymarsh has had an especially hard time placing graduates in the past, the mere⁵ fact that more jobs are available will not, by itself, ensure that Waymarsh graduates will have an easier time finding teaching jobs during the next decade.
In conclusion, this argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide evidence that the only major trend in the next decade will be an increase in the number of people reaching college age. Regarding the future prospects for Waymarsh graduates, the author must provide evidence that there were no idiosyncratic reasons that prevented them from finding jobs in the past.

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