美国已经处于“温和衰退”之中

据福克斯新闻网6月27日报道，美国传统基金会客座研究员、经济学家斯蒂芬·摩尔警告称，美国已经处于“温和衰退”之中，并指出“真正的问题”是美联储是否能够实现软着陆。

 

Economist¹ Stephen Moore warned on Monday that the United States is already in a "soft recession," noting that the "real question" is now whether the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing.

6月27日，经济学家斯蒂芬·摩尔警告称，美国已经处于“温和衰退”之中，并指出“真正的问题”是美联储是否能够实现软着陆。

 

Moore, a visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation, provided the insight on "Varney & Co." Monday, reacting to former Treasury² Secretary Larry Summers contradicting President Biden on Sunday by saying that a recession was "almost inevitable³" in the next two years.

6月27日，美国传统基金会客座研究员摩尔接受福克斯新闻节目“Varney & Co”采访时发表了这一见解，回应了美国前财政部长拉里·萨默斯的观点。6月26日，萨默斯反驳拜登总统，称未来两年美国经济出现衰退“几乎不可避免”。

 

Summers provided the insight speaking on Bloomberg's "Wall Street Week," noting that there was a risk a recession could come sooner.

萨默斯在接受彭博社"华尔街周刊"采访时指出，经济衰退可能会更快到来。

 

However, last Monday, President Biden said that there was "nothing inevitable about a recession," and that he talked to Summers that morning.

然而，6月20日拜登总统表示“经济衰退没有什么不可避免的”，并在当天上午与萨默斯进行了交谈。

 

Moore noted⁴ on Monday that he didn’t agree with Biden nor Summers and that he believed the US was already in a mild recession.

摩尔6月27日指出，他不同意拜登和萨默斯的观点，他认为美国已经处于温和衰退中。

 

A recession refers to a contraction⁵ in gross domestic product (GDP) activity, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, for two consecutive⁶ quarters.

经济衰退是指国内生产总值（GDP）活动连续两个季度收缩，GDP是衡量一个经济体生产商品和服务的最广泛指标。

 

It was revealed in late April that the US economy cooled markedly in the first three months of the year, as snarled⁷ supply chains, record-high inflation and labor⁸ shortages weighed on growth and slowed the pandemic recovery.

4月底公布的数据显示，供应链混乱、创纪录的高通胀和被劳动力短缺拖累的经济增长和复苏，这些因素导致今年前三个月美国经济明显降温。

 

Moore pointed⁹ to the GDP data on Monday, noting that the "first six months of the year have been negative for growth."

摩尔在6月27日提到了GDP数据，并指出“今年上半年的增长为负值。”

 

He also noted that the figure is "not a catastrophic loss in GDP, but we’re probably down 1% from where we were six months ago."

他指出，“GDP没有出现灾难性的下降，但可能比六个月前下降了1%”。

 

"And then when you add to that the fact that people’s incomes in real terms are falling really fast, something like $2,000 to $3,000 a year, that’s a recession," he continued. "So yeah, we’re in a recession."

“再加上人们的实际收入正在快速下降，大约每年减少2000到3000美元，这就是一场衰退。是的，我们正处于经济衰退中。”

 

Moore then said that he believes "the only real question right now is whether we’re going to have a soft landing or we are going to have a crash landing."

摩尔接着说，他认为“目前唯一真正的问题是，美国要实现软着陆，还是要实现硬着陆。”

 

Many economists¹⁰, like Moore, are wondering whether the Fed can successfully engineer the elusive¹¹ soft landing — the sweet spot between tamping¹² down demand to cool inflation without sending the economy into a downturn. Hiking interest rates tends to create higher rates on consumer and business loans, which slows the economy by forcing employers to cut back on spending.

摩尔等许多经济学家都在猜测，美联储能否成功实现难以捉摸的软着陆，即在抑制需求以缓解通胀的同时又不让经济陷入低迷的最佳结果。加息往往会提高消费者和企业的贷款利率，迫使雇主削减支出，从而减缓经济增长。

 

Earlier this June, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 75-basis points for the first time in nearly three decades.

6月早些时候，美联储宣布加息75个基点，这是近30年来首次。

 

Moore argued that whether a soft landing can be achieved largely "depends on the policy decisions that the Fed and the Biden administration make over the course of the next two to three to six months."

摩尔认为，能否实现软着陆在很大程度上“取决于美联储和拜登政府在未来两三个月到六个月内作出的政策决定”。

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