中国宏观经济政策应加强逆周期和跨周期调整

7月15日，中国经济“半年报”出炉。上半年，我国国内生产总值同比增长2.5%，其中二季度增长0.4%。经济学家认为，尽管存在下行压力，但一些经济指标的逐步改善显示出中国经济的韧性。中国宏观经济政策应加强逆周期和跨周期调整，以促进今年经济增长稳步复苏。

 

China's macroeconomic policies should strengthen both countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to promote steady recovery of growth this year, according to economists¹.

经济学家认为，中国宏观经济政策应加强逆周期和跨周期调整，以促进今年经济增长稳步复苏。

 

Their remarks came as China's economic expansion slowed to 0.4 percent year-on-year in the second quarter amid pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic and a complicated external environment, with the GDP posting a 2.5 percent growth in the first half, said the National Bureau of Statistics.

国家统计局表示，在新冠疫情和复杂的外部环境压力下，中国二季度经济同比增长放缓至0.4%，上半年国内生产总值（GDP）增长2.5%。

 

Despite downside pressure, the gradual improvement in some economic indicators² has showcased the resilience of the Chinese economy, Liu Shangxi, president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal³ Sciences, said at a macroeconomic summit held on Saturday by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum⁴.

中国财政科学研究院院长刘尚希7月16日在中国财富管理50人论坛举办的2022中期宏观峰会上表示，尽管存在下行压力，但一些经济指标的逐步改善显示出中国经济的韧性。

 

The NBS said value-added industrial output and fixed-asset investment grew 3.9 percent and 5.6 percent year-on-year, respectively, in June, up from a 0.7 percent rise and 4.6 percent increase in May. And retail⁵ sales grew 3.1 percent year-on-year in June, reversing the 6.7 percent decline in May.

国家统计局表示，6月份，规模以上工业增加值和固定资产投资分别同比增长3.9%和5.6%，高于5月份的0.7%和4.6%。6月份社会消费品零售总额增速由5月份同比下降6.7%，转为同比增长3.1%。

 

Liu said China should continue to pursue progress while ensuring stability for the rest of the year, with a key focus on further deepening reform and expanding opening-up to unleash⁶ more development dividends⁷.

刘尚希称，今年下半年，中国要继续稳中求进，重点抓好继续深化改革扩大开放，释放更多发展红利。

 

Wang Yiming, vice-chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said China's economic recovery will likely gather pace in the second half with better containment⁸ of the pandemic and policy stimulus⁹ measures further taking effect.

中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣表示，疫情防控形势较好，政策刺激措施进一步见效，下半年中国经济复苏步伐有望加快。

 

"To promote the steady recovery of the economic growth, we should strengthen countercyclical adjustments as well as leave ample policy room for cross-cyclical adjustments," Wang said.

王一鸣说：“稳增长要加强逆周期调节，又要预留跨周期政策空间。”

 

Looking at the second half, he said China needs to ramp¹⁰ up efforts to implement¹¹ a package of policy measures aimed at stabilizing¹² growth, expand effective investment, spur consumption, accelerate digital and smart transformation¹³ of industries and boost market confidence.

展望下半年，王一鸣表示，中国需要继续实施一系列旨在稳增长、扩大有效投资、刺激消费、加快产业数字化和智能化转型、提振市场信心的政策措施。

 

He further said the country should make a big push to implement existing policies supporting projects in fields such as transportation and water conservancy, and address weak links essential for people's livelihoods¹⁴. China should also implement 102 key projects mapped out in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) and speed up construction of "new infrastructure¹⁵" covering fields like 5G and data centers.

王一鸣认为，应进一步推动现有政策落地生效，扶持交通和水利等领域项目，破解民生关键领域薄弱环节。还要加大对“十四五”102项重大建设项目实施力度，并加快建设5G和数据中心等领域的“新基础设施”。

 

More efforts should also be made to take medium to long-term steps like deepening reform of the household registration¹⁶ system to unleash huge consumption potential as well as study and introduce policy measures to support the sustained and healthy development of the platform economy, Wang added.

王一鸣称，还应进一步制定中长期措施，如深化户籍制度改革，释放巨大消费潜力，以及研究和推出支持平台经济持续健康发展的政策措施。

 

Dai Xianglong, former governor of the People's Bank of China, said China's GDP growth slowed in the second quarter as activity in key regions such as Shanghai was severely¹⁷ impacted by the resurgent domestic COVID-19 cases. Official data showed Shanghai's GDP fell by 13.7 percent year-on-year in the second quarter to post a 5.7 decline in the first half of 2022.

中国人民银行原行长戴相龙指出，由于国内新冠疫情反弹，上海等关键地区的经济活动受到重创，中国第二季度GDP增长放缓。官方数据显示，上海第二季度GDP同比下降13.7%，2022年上半年下降5.7%。

 

As the economy is gradually shaking off the pandemic impact with resumption of work and production, Dai said the country enjoys several favorable conditions to promote recovery in the second half including an improvement in key indicators such as investment and consumption.

戴相龙表示，随着经济逐步摆脱疫情影响，企业复工复产，下半年经济复苏存在有利条件，如投资和消费等关键指标的增长。

 

Dai also said China's economy may expand by over 5 percent year-on-year in the third and fourth quarters, posting an over 4.5 percent full-year GDP growth.

戴相龙称，三季度、四季度GDP增长超过5%是可能的。全年GDP增长超过4.5%也是可能的。

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