下半年中国将继续推出一系列增量政策工具

经济学家认为，今年下半年，中国将继续推出一系列增量政策工具，进一步巩固经济向好趋势，推动经济复苏提速。

 

China will continue to adopt a series of incremental¹ policies to further consolidate² and accelerate its economic recovery from COVID-19 in the latter part of this year, economists⁴ said.

经济学家表示，今年下半年，中国将继续推出一系列增量政策工具，进一步巩固经济向好趋势，推动经济复苏提速。

 

"It is estimated that apart from recently launched quasi-fiscal⁵ policy instruments, the Chinese government will provide additional fiscal funds worth about 1.5 trillion yuan ($222 billion) in the second half. The channels for capital replenishment⁶ include the issuance of local government special bonds, submission⁷ of increased profits of State-owned enterprises and revitalization of existing funds," said Yu Xiangrong, China chief economist³ at Citigroup.

花旗集团中国首席经济学家余向荣预测：“除了最近出台的准财政政策工具外，下半年政府可能会追加约1.5万亿元的增量财政资金，可能性较大的补充渠道包括地方政府发行的专项债券；增加国企利润上缴、盘活存量资金等方式。”

 

Yu emphasized that infrastructure⁸ investment is becoming a strong foothold for China to stabilize⁹ growth. As traditional infrastructure is still underdeveloped and has weak links due to its unbalanced growth, industrial upgrade and transitions to cleaner, greener energy need large-scale "new infrastructure" investment.

余向荣强调，基建投资正成为稳增长的主要抓手。由于基础设施短板依然存在，产业升级和能源转型也需大规模新基建投资的配合。

 

"The government will comprehensively broaden infrastructure financing through channels like fiscal policies and policy banks. We expect that China's full-year infrastructure investment will increase by 7.7 percent year-on-year, up from 0.4 percent last year, and the growth rate will remain at around 5 percent in 2023," he said.

余向荣称：“中国政府将继续通过财政和政策性银行等渠道全面拓宽基建融资，我们预测，全年基建投资增速将由2021年的0.4%升至今年的约7.7%，并在2023年维持在5%区间附近。”

 

Infrastructure investment has enjoyed strong policy support, including an acceleration¹⁰ of local government special bond issuance and fresh 300 billion yuan funding from policy banks. Thanks to these fundings, infrastructure investment growth will likely stay high in the next few months, said Xiong Yi, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank.

基础设施投资近期获得了强有力的政策支持，如加快地方政府专项债券发行、政策性银行发行 3000 亿人民币金融工具等。德意志银行首席中国经济学家熊毅表示，未来数月内，基础设施投资增速有望在政策支持下维持在较高水平。

 

Most of the government's announced policies thus far are short-term in nature. Barring further policy announcements, fiscal policy might soon hit its annual budget constraints¹¹ and debt ceilings, Xiong said.

当前出台的大多数政策都是短期的。熊毅认为，若下半年没有进一步的政策支持，财政政策或将很快受到年度预算和债务上限的限制。

 

Lian Ping, chief economist at Zhixin Investment and head of the Zhixin Investment Research Institute, agreed that the proactive fiscal policy will remain the main force to boost economic recovery in China in the second half.

植信投资首席经济学家兼研究院院长连平表示，积极的财政政策仍将是推动下半年中国经济复苏的主要力量。

 

The government needs to further accelerate fiscal spending, especially in areas like social security, employment, healthcare, and agriculture, forestry¹² and water resources, Lian said.

连平说，政府需要进一步增加财政支出，特别是在社会保障、就业、医疗保健、农业、林业和水资源等领域。

 

"The majority of funds raised via the issuance of treasury¹³ bonds and local government bonds are expected to be used by the end of August. This will effectively support the implementation¹⁴ of major projects in China, and the impact of the nation's fiscal policy on stabilizing¹⁵ growth will further appear. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, China may front-load the 2023 special-purpose bond quota¹⁶ to satisfy continuously increasing financing needs, thus allowing macroeconomic policies to provide sustained support for growth stabilization," he said.

“8月末预计发债募集的资金将大部分使用完毕，将有效支持重大项目落地实施，财政对稳增长的政策效应会进一步显现。今年四季度初有可能会提前下发2023年额度，以满足持续增长的融资需求，发挥宏观政策对稳增长的持续支持。”

 

Because of the acceleration of government bond issuance and unleashed¹⁷ financing demand of businesses, China will see faster credit growth, and the liquidity¹⁸ of its banking¹⁹ system may become relatively²⁰ tight for a certain period at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. As a result, the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, may cut the reserve requirement ratio again to meet funding needs boosted by accelerated economic growth in the second half, Lian said.

连平认为，政府债券发行提速后资金落地进一步加快、企业融资需求得到一定释放等都将加快信贷增长速度。三季度末或四季度初银行流动性可能会阶段性的相对紧张，预计央行可能会择时再次降准，满足下半年经济增长加快的资金需求。

 

The PBOC may also lower relending rates for the agriculture sector²¹ and small businesses once more to support banks' further cuts to lending rates for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, he said.

连平称，央行可能会再次下调支农支小再贷款再贴现利率，支持银行下调中小微企业贷款利率。

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