我国经济在三四季度将会加速增长

尽管当前我国面临着疫情冲击和外部挑战，但是专家指出，随着政府的一系列刺激政策落地生效，我国经济在三四季度将会加速增长，并在合理区间内保持稳定运行。

 

China is on track for a steady rebound¹ in the third and fourth quarters as policy stimulus² takes effect, and renewed COVID-19 outbreaks will be less disruptive to the supply chain, experts said.

专家称，随着刺激政策落地生效，中国经济在三四季度将会稳定复苏，新一轮疫情也不会对供应链产生太大破坏性影响。

 

They expect strong fiscal³ easing — notably⁴ in infrastructure⁵ spending — to shore up growth, better use of structural⁶ monetary⁷ tools and more government measures to further stimulate⁸ consumption, which will help boost domestic demand and build a strong national market.

专家预计强有力的财政宽松政策——尤其是在基建投资领域的宽松政策——会支撑经济增长，政府会更好地利用结构性货币政策工具和采取更多措施来进一步刺激消费，这将有助于刺激内需和营造强大的国内市场。

 

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist⁹ at Yuekai Securities, expected the growth to recover to 5 percent in the third and fourth quarters of the year, making a full-year V-shaped rebound.

粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒预计三四季度能回归5%的增速，全年经济增长曲线呈现“V型”反弹。

 

To stabilize¹⁰ overall growth, Luo said it would be advisable to allocate¹¹ some of the 2023 quota¹² for local government special bonds in advance in the fourth quarter and to increase financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, technological¹³ innovation and green development.

罗志恒认为，为了保持经济增长整体稳定，应在第四季度提前下达2023年地方政府的部分专项债额度，加大对中小企业、技术创新和绿色发展的财政支持。

 

For the second half of 2022, a recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee urged efforts to keep the economy running within an appropriate range and to strive for the best possible outcome.

中共中央政治局近日召开的会议提出，2022年下半年要努力保持经济运行在合理区间，力争实现最好结果。

 

It was decided¹⁴ that major economically developed provinces should play a leading role and provinces that are able to should strive to meet the objectives set for economic and social development this year.

会议决定，经济大省要勇挑大梁，有条件的省份要力争完成经济社会发展预期目标。

 

Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan's chief China economist, said the central government made a "practical" choice to de-emphasize the preset annual GDP growth target of around 5.5 percent in the face of unexpected shocks from COVID-19 and external challenges.

摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌表示，在突如其来的疫情冲击和外部挑战下，中央政府淡化5.5%左右的全年GDP增长目标是切合实际的选择。

 

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the five coastal¹⁵ provincial¹⁶ regions in southeast China that account for over one-third of China's economy — Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai — will play a key role in stabilizing¹⁷ overall growth.

英大证券研究所所长郑后成指出，经济体量占全国三分之一的东南沿海5省市——福建、广东、江苏、浙江和上海将在稳定经济整体增长方面发挥重要作用。

 

Local governments across China have recently accelerated measures to boost consumption, a major challenge to the national economy in the second half of the year, for example by encouraging car purchases and issuing consumption vouchers¹⁸.

全国各地政府最近也加快推出刺激消费的措施，比如鼓励购车和发放消费券。下半年消费市场复苏是我国经济面临的主要挑战。

 

China's southwestern Yunnan province has released a plan for boosting consumption and stabilizing growth from 2022 to 2024, requiring efforts to develop online and offline consumption and encourage digital and intelligent transformation¹⁹ of traditional trade enterprises and to build Kunming into an international consumption center.

中国云南省政府印发《云南省促消费稳增长三年行动计划（2022-2024年）》，要求努力发展线上线下消费，鼓励传统商贸企业向数字化智能化转型，把昆明打造成国际消费中心。

 

The northern port city of Tianjin is planning to unveil 20 measures to spur consumption, it said in a recently released document, with major focus on encouraging consumption of cars, housing, home appliances, and cultural tourism as well as stimulating²⁰ new types of consumption.

天津新出台了20条提振消费措施，主要内容是鼓励汽车、住房、家电消费和文化旅游以及培育新型消费。

 

Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, Guangdong province, have also unveiled a series of measures, such as holding shopping events and giving out coupons²¹ and subsidies²².

北京、上海、深圳和广东也出台了一系列措施，比如举办购物节、发放消费券和补贴等。

 

Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said investment will also be a key growth driver.

中国银行研究院研究员叶银丹指出，投资也将是拉动经济增长的主要动力。

 

To further spur consumption in the second half, Ye said the government should expand efforts to boost residents' confidence and expectations by beefing up support for the unemployed²³ and low-income groups.

叶银丹表示，为了在下半年进一步刺激消费，政府将通过加大对失业和低收入人群的扶持来努力提升居民的消费信心和期望值。

 

She proposed adopting more measures, such as encouraging more promotions²⁴ and sales on holidays, offering subsidies to buyers of new energy vehicles and green home appliances and easing restrictions²⁵ on the recovery in services consumption amid COVID-19 outbreaks.

她建议采取更多措施，比如鼓励节假日开展更多促销活动，向购买新能源汽车和绿色家电的消费者提供补贴，放松限制疫情期间服务消费复苏的规定。

 

Looking ahead, Ye said China's economy will likely rebound quarter by quarter as the stimulus policy gradually takes effect, and the country will keep economic performance stable within a reasonable range in the second half.

展望未来，叶银丹表示，随着刺激政策逐步生效，中国经济将会逐季度复苏，我国下半年将会在合理区间内保持经济稳定运行。

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