今年美国送礼购物季将不再疯狂

往年一到感恩节和圣诞季，美国人都会给许多亲友同事送去节日礼物，但是今年美国人在送礼上可能不会那么大方了，飞涨的物价迫使人们压缩送礼开支，送礼购物季也将不再疯狂。

 

The kids, the grandparents, the babysitter, maybe your favorite aunt or uncle. That's it.

孩子、祖父母、保姆，也许还有你最亲的姑姑或叔叔。要送礼的人就这么多。

 

You can blame inflation for families knocking friends, co-workers and extended families off your holiday gift lists this year.

今年美国家庭只能把朋友、同事和亲戚从节日送礼名单上移除，要怪就怪通货膨胀。

 

Persistent¹ inflation – consumer prices increased by 8.5% in July over last year – has reshaped how Americans are budgeting for everyday necessities and occasional indulgences. Prices are up for everything from groceries to clothing, shoes, stationery² items and more.

持续的通胀——7月消费者价格同比上涨8.5%——已经改变了美国人花费在日常必需品和偶尔放纵上的预算。从食品杂货到服装、鞋、文具等各种商品的价格都上涨了。

 

It's also forced many households to tap into their savings³ or rack up more credit card debt just to keep up with the higher cost of living. Over the past year, credit card debt has jumped by $100 billion, or 13%, the biggest percentage increase in more than 20 years.

通胀导致的生活成本上升还迫使许多家庭为了维持生活而动用存款或欠下更多信用卡债务。过去一年来，美国的信用卡债务增加了1000亿美元，涨幅高达13%，创下20多年来的最大涨幅。

 

What does all this mean for the upcoming 2022 holiday shopping season? Less. A lot less.

所有这些对即将到来的2022节日购物季意味着什么呢？意味着人们会减少开支，而且是大减。

 

It'll be a stark⁴ contrast from last year's robust⁵ holiday performance, according to a new forecast from consulting firm Deloitte.

咨询公司德勤的最新预测显示，今年的节日销售业绩将与去年形成强烈反差。

 

It expects retail⁶ sales for the key year-end gift-buying months of November, December and January to increase 4% to 6%. This compares with a robust 15.1% increase for the same time frame last year.

德勤预期年末送礼季（11月、12月和1月）的零售额将比其他月份增长4%到6%。相比之下，去年同期的增长幅度高达15.1%。

 

The projected sharp pullback from last year “reflects the slowdown in the economy,” Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's US economic forecaster, said in a report. “Retail sales are likely to be further affected⁷ by declining demand for durable⁸ consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending.”

德勤的美国经济预测师丹尼尔·巴赫曼在一份报告中称，相比去年零售额大减“反映出经济正在减速。零售业的销售额可能还会进一步受到耐用消费品需求下降的影响，而耐用消费品一直是疫情支出的核心。”

 

The 15% growth in holiday shopping last season was also largely due to the “uncommon circumstances surrounding the pandemic", namely the shift to spending on “things rather than experience and the extra cash provided by the stimulus⁹ checks,” said Andrew Forman, associate professor of marketing¹⁰, at Hofstra University's Frank G. Zarb School of Business.

霍夫斯特拉大学弗兰克扎布商学院的营销学副教授安德鲁·福曼指出，去年节日购物季15%的增幅很大程度上也是由于“和疫情有关的特殊情况”，人们转而购买“物品而非经历”，同时还因为人们在经济刺激计划中获得了额外的现金。

 

"This year's shopping season is likely to be challenging for retailers,” he said.

他说：“今年的购物季对于零售商而言将会不好过。”

 

Smaller gifts 缩水的节日礼物

 

Among the gifting categories that are still expected to do well this year are clothing, toys and gift cards. Spending in restaurants, entertainment and travel should also perk¹¹ up, said Rod Sides, vice¹² chair with Deloitte and head of its US retail and distribution practice.

德勤副董事长兼美国零售批发业务负责人罗德·赛兹表示，今年仍将吃香的礼物类别是服装、玩具和礼品卡，餐厅、娱乐和旅游消费应该也会增加。

 

"Overall, there will still be sales growth but it won't be as dramatic as last year,” said Sides. “If there are fewer gift purchases by consumers, expect to see even more holiday promotions¹³ than ever.”

赛兹说：“总体来看，销售额会增长，但不会像去年的增幅那么大。如果消费者购买的礼物减少了，那么节日的促销活动可能会比以往更多。”

 

Inflation won't be the Grinch that completely stole Christmas, according to Neil Saunders, retail analyst¹⁴ and managing director at GlobalData Retail.

咨询机构GlobalData Retail的零售业分析师兼常务董事尼尔·桑德斯表示，通胀不会完全“偷走”圣诞节。

 

"Gifting will remain an important part of the holidays, but consumers will be much more frugal¹⁵ and practical in their gift spending. That means cutting back on gifting to non-family members such as colleagues or friends, so gifting circles will shrink,” he said.

他指出：“送礼仍会是节日的一个重要部分，但是消费者在送礼支出上会节俭务实得多。这意味着削减送给同事或朋友等非家庭成员的礼物，也就是说，送礼圈子将会缩小。”

 

If consumers are planning fewer gifts, they will likely try to make them more meaningful, said Saunders.

桑德斯说，如果消费者计划送出的礼物变少，那么他们会努力让礼物更有意义。

 

"They will be keen to ensure they are things that are wanted rather than fripperies that are a bit of a waste of money. Practical gifts will be in, including the gifting of cash and gift cards so that recipients¹⁶ can choose exactly what they want,” he said.

他说：“他们会确保礼物是对方想要的，而不是瞎花钱的华而不实的东西。包括现金和礼品卡在内的实用礼物将会成为首选，这样收礼者就可以选择自己真正想要的东西。”

 

One area where there won't be much of a cutback? Gifts for kids. Said Saunders, “Parents are always keen to pull out all the stops to ensure children have a great holiday.”

不太会缩水的礼物是哪一块呢？那就是给孩子的礼物。桑德斯说：“父母们总是愿意倾尽全力，让孩子们度过一个快乐的节日。”

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