地质构造“拉链”

The complex fracture pattern created by the earthquake in Concepción (Chile) on 27 February 2010 was to a certain extent predictable（可预言的） . GPS observations from the years before the earthquake showed the pattern of stresses that had accumulated（累积的） through the plate movements during the past 175 years in this area. The stress distribution derived¹ from the observations correlates（关联） highly with the subsequent fracture distribution. In all likelihood the tremor² removed all the stress that had accumulated since the last earthquake in this region, which was observed by Charles Darwin in 1835. An earthquake of similar magnitude in this area is therefore unlikely in the near future. This result was presented by scientists of the GFZ German Centre for Geosciences (Helmholtz Association) in the latest edition of the scientific journal Nature (09 September 2010). "The Maule earthquake near Concepción, Chile, on the 27 Februar registered with a momentum³（势头，动量） magnitude of 8.8, makes it one of the largest earthquakes to have been recorded in its entirety via a modern network of space-geodetic and geophysical instruments on the ground," says Professor Onno Oncken, head of the Department "Geodynamics" at GFZ. "It thus offers a unique opportunity to compare detailed⁴ observations prior to the earthquake with those taken during and after it, and to re-evaluate hypotheses regarding the predictability of such events."

Measurements using the satellite navigation system GPS showed that the seafloor of the Nazca plate in the Pacific Ocean does not slide evenly under the western boundary of the South American continent. Rather, it appears from the GPS measurements that some parts of the ocean floor got locked with the subsurface（地下的） of the continent. In the gaps, however, the Nazca plate continued to push under South America. The resulting uneven⁵ stress pattern was released by the earthquake of the 27 February in such a way that, just like a zipper⁶, the locked patches were ruptured⁷（破裂的） one after the other. As a result, this seismic⁸ gap（地震空白区） off the Chilean westcoast is now closed, one last gap remains⁹ in northern Chile. Here, the GFZ scientists set up a plate boundary observatory¹⁰, in order to make use of the entire range of geoscientific instruments to record the conditions before, during and after an earthquake- an important step in understanding the processes of plate tectonics（地质构造学） .

Modern Earth science may still not be able to predict the location, time and magnitude of an earthquake. But the present study offers an optimistic perspective concerning the predictability of possible fracture patterns and magnitudes of expected earthquakes.