气候变化对农业的影响可能被低估
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2016-03-08 05:21 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
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One of the most critical questions surrounding climate change is how it might affect the food supply for a growing global population. A new study by researchers from Brown and Tufts universities suggests that researchers have been overlooking how two key human responses to climate -- how much land people choose to farm, and the number of crops they plant -- will impact food production in the future. The study, published in Nature Climate Change, focused on the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, an emerging global breadbasket that as of 2013 supplied 10 percent of the world's soybeans. The researchers used variations in temperature and precipitation across the state over an eight-year period to estimate the sensitivity of the region's agricultural production to climate change. Those historical comparisons can help in making predictions about the sensitivity of agriculture to future climate change.
 
The study found that, if the patterns from 2002 to 2008 hold in the future, an increase in average temperature in Mato Grosso of just 1 degree Celsius1 will lead to a nine to 13 percent reduction in overall production of soy and corn. "This is worrisome given that the temperature in the study region is predicted to rise by as much as 2 degrees by midcentury under the range of plausible2 greenhouse gas emissions3 scenarios," said Avery Cohn, aassistant professor of environment and resource policy at Tufts, who led the work while he was a visiting researcher at Brown.
 
But the study's broader implications stem from the mechanisms4 behind the changes in agricultural output. Most studies of this kind look only at the extent to which climate shocks affect crop yield--the amount of product harvested from a given unit of agricultural land. But by only looking at that single variable, researchers can miss critical dynamics5 that can affect overall output, says Leah VanWey, professor of sociology at Brown and senior deputy director of the Institute at Brown for the Study of Environment and Society (IBES).
 
"If you look at yields alone, you're not looking at all of the information because there are economic and social changes going on as well," said VanWey, one of the study's senior authors. "You're not taking into account farmers' reactions to climate shocks."
 
For example, farmers may react to decreasing yields by putting less land area into production because it's simply not profitable. Farmers may also vary the number of crops they plant in a growing season. Double cropping--the planting of two successive crops in the same field in the same growing season--is common in Mato Grosso. If the weather is bad, farmers may alter their decision to plant a second crop. 
 
For this new study, the researchers looked not only at crop yield, but also at year-to-year variation in crop area and double cropping. To develop those additional datasets, Cohn and VanWey worked with Jack6 Mustard, professor of earth, environmental and planetary sciences at Brown, and graduate student Stephanie Spera. Mustard and Spera gathered imagery of the Mato Grosso region from NASA's MODIS satellite, which monitors land cover and land use all over the world.


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1 Celsius AXRzl     
adj.摄氏温度计的,摄氏的
参考例句:
  • The temperature tonight will fall to seven degrees Celsius.今晚气温将下降到七摄氏度。
  • The maximum temperature in July may be 36 degrees Celsius.七月份最高温度可能达到36摄氏度。
2 plausible hBCyy     
adj.似真实的,似乎有理的,似乎可信的
参考例句:
  • His story sounded plausible.他说的那番话似乎是真实的。
  • Her story sounded perfectly plausible.她的说辞听起来言之有理。
3 emissions 1a87f8769eb755734e056efecb5e2da9     
排放物( emission的名词复数 ); 散发物(尤指气体)
参考例句:
  • Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
  • Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。
4 mechanisms d0db71d70348ef1c49f05f59097917b8     
n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 );机械装置;[生物学] 机制;机械作用
参考例句:
  • The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》
5 dynamics NuSzQq     
n.力学,动力学,动力,原动力;动态
参考例句:
  • In order to succeed,you must master complicated knowledge of dynamics.要取得胜利,你必须掌握很复杂的动力学知识。
  • Dynamics is a discipline that cannot be mastered without extensive practice.动力学是一门不做大量习题就不能掌握的学科。
6 jack 53Hxp     
n.插座,千斤顶,男人;v.抬起,提醒,扛举;n.(Jake)杰克
参考例句:
  • I am looking for the headphone jack.我正在找寻头戴式耳机插孔。
  • He lifted the car with a jack to change the flat tyre.他用千斤顶把车顶起来换下瘪轮胎。
TAG标签: People food climate
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