Nearly one in four stars like the sun could have Earth-size planets, according to a University of California, Berkeley, study of nearby solar-mass stars. UC Berkeley astronomers² Andrew Howard and Geoffrey Marcy chose 166 G and K stars within 80 light years of Earth and observed them with the powerful Keck telescope for five years in order to determine the number, mass and orbital distance of any of the stars' planets. The sun is the best known of the G stars, which are yellow, while K-type dwarfs⁴（侏儒，矮子） are slightly smaller, orange-red stars.

The researchers found increasing numbers of smaller planets, down to the smallest size detectable⁵ today – planets called super-Earths, about three times the mass of Earth.

"Of about 100 typical sun-like stars, one or two have planets the size of Jupiter, roughly six have a planet the size of Neptune⁶, and about 12 have super-Earths between three and 10 Earth masses," said Howard, a research astronomer¹ in UC Berkeley's Department of Astronomy and at the Space Sciences Laboratory. "If we extrapolate（外推，推断） down to Earth-size planets – between one-half and two times the mass of Earth – we predict that you'd find about 23 for every 100 stars."

"This is the first estimate based on actual measurements of the fraction of stars that have Earth-size planets," said Marcy, UC Berkeley professor of astronomy. Previous studies have estimated the proportion of Jupiter and Saturn-size exoplanets（外部行星） , but never down to Neptunes and super-Earths, enabling an extrapolation to Earth-size planets.

"What this means," Howard added, "is that, as NASA develops new techniques over the next decade to find truly Earth-size planets, it won't have to look too far."

Because the researchers detected only close-in planets, there could be even more Earth-size planets at greater distances, including within the habitable zone located at about the same distance as the earth is from our sun. The habitable, or "Goldilocks," zone is the distance from a star neither two hot nor too cold to allow the presence of liquid water.

The researchers' results conflict with current models of planet formation and migration⁷, Marcy noted⁸. After their birth in a protoplanetary disk（原行星盘） , planets had been thought to spiral inward because of interactions with the gas in the disk. Such models predict a "planet desert" in the inner region of solar systems.

"Just where we see the most planets, models predict we would find no cacti⁹（仙人掌） at all," Marcy said. "These results will transform astronomers' views of how planets form."

Howard and Marcy report their results in the Oct. 29 issue of the journal Science.

The astronomers used the 10-meter Keck telescopes in Hawaii to measure the minute wobble（摆动，摇晃） of each star. Current techniques allow detection of planets massive enough and near enough to their stars to cause a wobble of about 1 meter per second. That means they saw only massive, Jupiter-like gas giants up to three times the mass of Jupiter (1,000 times Earth's mass) orbiting as far as one-quarter of an astronomical¹⁰ unit (AU) from the star, or smaller, closer super-Earths and Neptune-like planets (15-30 times the mass of the earth). An AU is 93 million miles, the average distance between the earth and the sun.

Only 22 of the stars had detectable planets – 33 planets in all – within this range of masses and orbital distances. After accounting¹¹ statistically¹² for the fact that some stars were observed more often than others, the researchers estimated that about 1.6 percent of the sun-like stars in their sample had Jupiter-size planets and 12 percent had super-Earths (3-10 Earth masses). If the trend of increasing numbers of smaller planets continues, they concluded, 23 percent of the stars would have Earth-size planets.

Based on these statistics, Howard and Marcy, who is a member of NASA's Kepler mission to survey 156,000 faint stars in search of transiting¹³ planets, estimate that the telescope will detect 120-260 "plausibly¹⁴（似真地） terrestrial（地球的，陆地的） worlds" orbiting some 10,000 nearby G and K dwarf³ stars with orbital periods less than 50 days.

"One of astronomy's goals is to find eta-Earth (ηEarth), the fraction of sun-like stars that have an earth," Howard said. "This is a first estimate, and the real number could be one in eight instead of one in four. But it's not one in 100, which is glorious news."

Twelve possible planets also were detected, but they need further confirmation¹⁵, Marcy said. If these candidate planets are included in the count, the team detected a total of 45 planets around 32 stars.