Scientists expect the future climate to become warmer, and that this will apply to the Arctic in particular. Here the temperature is expected to increase considerably¹ more than the average on Earth, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change average scenario² (A1B). What will this mean for Greenland? A very significant change will be the emergence³ of forests, where there are currently only four species of trees and large bushes indigenous⁴（本土的） to Greenland -- and they only grow in small areas in the south.

 

An international research group including Professor of Biology Jens-Christian Svenning, Aarhus University, has analysed which species will be able to grow in the climate expected in Greenland in 2100. The analysis shows that a majority of 44 relevant species of North American and European trees and bushes will be able to grow in Greenland in the future.

 

In fact, the analysis points to the fact that a considerable number of species would already be able to grow in Greenland today. This is supported by actual experiments, where various species of trees have been planted in Greenland, including Siberian larch⁵, white spruce, lodgepole pine and Eastern balsam poplar.

 

By the end of the century, a key species like the Arctic dwarf⁶ birch will probably be able to find suitable habitats in most areas of Greenland that are currently ice-free, far beyond its current distribution. Here we are talking about more than 400,000 square kilometres, or an area almost the size of Sweden.

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