The Crash Of '99?
1999年会出现经济衰退吗？

THE CRISIS STAGE: The U.S. economy suddenly looks weaker than almost anyone expected. The conventional wisdom still says America won't be pulled down by global economic woes¹. Don't bet on it.
危机时期：美国的经济，骤然看起来，比人们预计的要糟糕。很多看法仍然坚持美国不会被时下的全球经济灾难拖累。决不要在这个问题上打赌。

By Robert J. Samuelson
罗伯特·塞缪尔森

[1] There are two ways to interpret『解释；说明；阐明』 the slide of the stock market that, despite intermittent² rallies『跌停回升；降后复涨』, is down almost 17 percent from its mid-July peak『最高点；高峰』. The first is that investors³ simply got rattled⁴『惊慌失措』 by a series of events that they barely understood, from the collapse⁵ of the Russian ruble in mid-August to the near bankruptcy『破产』of the Long- Term Capital Markets hedge fund『投资基金；投资集团』 at the end of September. The second is that the market is signaling『做表示；发信号』 a genuine economic turning point: that the United States, after more than seven years of healthy expansion, is stumbling into『陷入』 sharp slowdown or even a recession『衰退；衰退期』.

[1]尽管股市断断续续出现反弹，但仍从今年7月中旬的最高点下跌了大约17％。对于当前股市的狂泻有两种解释：第一种解释是，投资者对所发生的一系列事件困惑不解。这些事件有8月中旬俄罗斯卢布的贬值、9月底长期资本管理公司濒临崩溃等；第二种解释是，市场正在发出经济将发生真正转折的信号：美国经济在经历了7年健康的增长之后将急剧减速，甚至进入衰退。

【额外成就感】：
The young man interpreted her answer as a refusal.
(这个年轻人把她的回答解释为拒绝。)
Good speaker should interpret his point clearly.
（优秀的讲演者应该清晰地阐明自己的观点。）
Both sides have signaled their willingness to start negotiations⁶.
（双方都表示愿意开始谈判。）
The policeman signaled the traffic to move forward slowly.
（警察示意车辆慢速行驶。）

[2] Sorry, folks: it looks like a recession.

[2] 对不起，同胞们，经济眼下看起来就像是衰退。

[3] Let's state all the usual caveats⁷『警告；告戒』. We can't know for certain. Economic prognostication『预兆；预示』 is a routinely humbling⁸『谦卑的；恭顺的』 exercise. And for now, the U.S. economy seems strong. In September, unemployment was 4.6 percent (up only slightly from 4.5 percent in August), and President Clinton boasted that the jobless rate『失业率』 has been below 5 percent for 15 months, the best performance in 28 years. Meanwhile, the Census⁹ Bureau『人口普查局』reported that median household income rose almost 2 percent in 1997 to $37,005 and that the number of people below the government's poverty line『贫困线』fell by almost 1 million. But beyond these sparkling『激励的；鼓舞的』reports, the economy is edging toward a slump¹⁰『衰落；衰退』.

[3] 让我们来说说所有通常的警告吧。我们无法确切地知道是否要衰退，因为经济方面的预兆通常是由良好的发展势头开始的。是美国经济眼下看来还是很强劲的。9月份，美国的失业率为4.6％（略高于8月份的4.5％）。克林顿总统吹嘘说，失业率15个月以来一直在5％以下，是28年来最好的。与此同时，人口普查局在一份报告中说，1997年中产阶级家庭的收入增长了近2％，达到了人均37005美元；在政府规定的贫困线以下生活的人口已下降了近100万人。但是，除了这些积极的报道之外，经济正在逐步走向衰退。

[4] The best way to grasp this is to see the economic events of the past 15 months as a set of dominoes『多米诺骨牌』that, as they tumbled『跌倒；坍塌』, have imperiled『危及；使……陷于』 U.S. production and profits-and frayed『磨损』Americans' confidence. It was sky-high confidence, based on stratospheric『最高的』stock prices and strong job growth, that kept consumers spending furiously『热烈地；兴奋地』in early 1998. The personal savings¹¹ rate sank to less than 1 percent, as Americans spent almost all their current income. But with the global crisis eroding『削弱；破坏』corporate profits, stock prices dropped. If consumer spending-two thirds of gross domestic product-follows stocks down, a slump may be inevitable¹²『不可避免的；必然发生的』. A bad omen¹³『征兆；兆头』: consumer confidence, though still high, has begun slipping lately (chart).

[4] 不祥的征兆 了解这一点最好的办法就是看一看在过去的15个月中发生的一系列经济事件。其他一些国家的经济出现的连锁危机波及到了美国的生产和利润，进而影响了美国民众的信心。美国人一度很强的信心是建立在稳定的股市和强劲的就业增长的基础之上的。正是这强劲的信心使得消费者在1998年初狂热地消费。由于美国人把他们获得的收入都消费掉了，储蓄率因此降到不足1％。可是，随着全球性的经济危机吞噬了公司的利润，股市开始下挫。如果消费支出随着股市的下跌而下降，衰退就将是不可避免的。一个不祥的征兆是，消费者的信心虽然还很强，但已经开始慢慢下降了。

[5] Consider how the dominoes have toppled『倒塌；倒下』:

[5] 让我们来想一想这手牌是如何倒下的：

[6] The first was Thailand. It devalued the baht『铢，泰国货币单位』on July 2,1997. Few Americans noticed. After all, Thailand absorbed only 1 percent of U.S. exports. But other Asian countries (South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines) soon followed suit. Foreign investment capital that had poured in to these countries-as bank loans, direct investment and stock purchases-began to flee『逃走；逃掉』, because the money was badly spent. Blame fell on "crony『老朋友；密友』 capitalism¹⁴" (funneling『集中的』 investment funds to favored friends or industries). Still, American economists¹⁵ minimized『使尽量缩小』 the impact『影响；冲击』; together, these countries buy only 8 percent of U.S. exports.

[6]首先是泰国，在1997年7月2日泰铢进行了贬值。很少有美国人注意到这一点，毕竟泰国仅占美国出口的1%。但是，其他的亚洲国家相继跨入了这一行列（有韩国，印尼，马来西亚，菲律宾）。早先涌入的国外投资资本，主要是银行贷款，直接投资，购买股票。由于资金消耗太大，这时候纷纷撤出。责任当然在这些资本主义的国家身上（他们集中对热门工业进行投资）。此时，美国经济学家仍在尽量减小受到的冲击：这些国家加在一起，也仅占了美国出口的8%。

[7] Then Japan was hurt, because roughly 40 percent of its trade is with the rest of Asia. The loss of exports pushed its already-weak economy-which had never fully¹⁶ recovered from the speculative『投机的；带有投机性的』"bubble economy『泡沫经济』" of the late 1980s-into its worst postwar recession. The problems of its banks, burdened『承担；负担』 with more than $500 billion in bad loans, deepened. All the Asian recessions fed on each other; Japan wasn't healthy enough to help other Asian nations revive『复苏；复兴』by buying more of their exports.

[7] 由于日本大约有40%的贸易是与亚洲国家进行的，这使其国内经济受到了损害。自从80年代后期以来，日本的投机性泡沫经济一直就没有彻底愈合，此时出口的下降，把本已脆弱的经济推入了战后最严重的衰退之中。日本的银行问题重重，负担的坏帐总额超过5000亿美圆。所有亚洲国家的经济衰退交互影响，日本无力以增加本国的进口来帮助亚洲国家复兴经济。 【背景知识】
在亚洲经济危机发生之后，仅日本就给出了190亿美圆，而欧美诸国加在一起也不到150亿美圆。在亚洲日本与欧美相比，其影响的大小清晰可见。 日本是中国以及很多亚洲国家的主要出口市场，只有日本的经济出现复苏亚洲各国才会拥有真正摆脱经济阴影的基础。

[8] Capital flight next hit Latin America and Russia in early summer. To stop investors from converting local currencies into dollars (or yen¹⁷ or German marks), countries raised interest rates. In July, short-term interest rates in Russia shot to 100 percent. But high rates meant slower economic growth or a crash; a currency collapse-if capital flight continued-posed『造成；引起』the same dangers. Now the "Asian crisis" extended well beyond a few small countries. Including Japan, Latin America and the former soviet¹⁸ bloc¹⁹, almost half the world economy was affected²⁰.

[8]在今年夏天早些时候，资金外流接下来就冲击了拉美国家和俄罗斯。为了制止投资商把本国货币兑换成美圆（或日圆及德国马克），这些国家提高了利率。在七月份，俄罗斯的短期利率达到了100%。但是高利率意味着经济低增长甚至崩溃：如果资本抽逃持续下去的话，货币体系的暴跌会导致同样的危险。现在"亚洲危机"已不再局限于几个经济小国了。包括日本，拉美，俄罗斯在内的世界经济的一半都受到了影响。

【背景知识】
在8月26日俄罗斯金融危机中，股市，汇市，债市，下跌不止，美圆供不应求。以致中央银行宣布停止交易，随后又宣布，当日的所有交易全部无效。这种令人震惊的举动在俄罗斯金融市场尚属首次。其后又宣布银行将休假两星期。所有银行门前都挂着没有外汇的牌子。在债市上部分半年和一年期的国债券收益率上升到300%。当局根据有关规定被迫关闭了交易市场。随后政府又宣布推迟偿还卢布面值的短期国债券，使其变为3-5年的长期债券。