One in three businesses lives to be 5. Here is how to be a winner.

　　三家企业中只有一家企业能存在五年，怎样在竞争中成为赢家？

　　Large， multinational¹ corporations may be the companies whose ups and downs seize headlines. But to a far greater extent than most Americans realize， the economy's vitality² depends on the fortunes of tiny shops and restaurants， neighborhood services and factories. Small businesses， defined as those with fewer than 100 workers， now employ nearly 60 percent of the work force and are expected to generate half of all new jobs between now and the year 2000. Some 1.2 million small firms have opened their doors over the past six years or economic growth and 1989 will see an additional 200，000 entrepreneurs striking off on their own.

　　大型的跨国公司，其兴衰沉浮常是报刊抢登的头版重要新闻的公司。但大部分美国人还远远没能认识到，经济的活力都取决于小商店、小餐馆、街道服务业和工厂的兴衰。小企业一般定义为工人人数不足100人的企业，而现在的小企业雇佣了将近全部劳动力的60%，并预期从现在起到2000年将提供所有新就业机会中一半的工作岗位。在过去经济发展的6年里，大约开办了120万家小企业，在1989年还将有另外20万名企业家轻易地独立开业。

　　Too many of these pioneers， however， will blaze ahead unprepared. Idealists will overestimate³ the clamor for their products of fail to factor in the competition. Nearly everyone will underestimate， often fatally， the capital that success requires. Midcareer executives， forced by a takeover or restructuring to quit the corporation and find another way to support themselves， may savor⁴ the idea of being their own boss but may forget that entrepreneurs must also， at least for a while， be bookkeeper and receptionist， too. According to Small Business Administration data， 24 of every 100 businesses starting out today are likely at have disappeared in two years， and 27 more will have shut their doors four years from now. By 1995，more than 60 of those 100 start-ups will have folded. A new study of 3，000 small businesses， sponsored by American. Express and the National Federation⁵ of Independent Business， suggests slightly better odds⁶： Three years after start-up， 77 percent of the companies surveyed were still alive. Most credited their success in large part to having picked a business they already were comfortable in. Eighty percent had worked with the same product or service in their last jobs.

　　然而，这些开拓者中许许多多人在无准备之下，便热情地干起来。理想主义者将过高地估计争购他们产品的呼声，或者将在竞争中经销失败。几乎每个人都过低估计到成功所需要的资本，这常常是致命的。中层管理人员由于公司兼并或改组的原因，被迫辞去公司里的工作去另谋出路时，可能会欣赏自己做老板的想法，但是他们可能忘记企业家至少也要做一段时间的记帐员和接待员。根据小企业管理局的统计数据，今天开业的100家小企业中有24家可能在2年内倒闭。还有大约有27家从现在起将在4年内破产，1995年那100家新开张的企业中有60多家将会倒闭。由美国运通公司和美国独立商行联合会主办的对3000家小企业的一项新研究显示结果稍为乐观：在企业开业后的3年内，被调查的公司中有77%一直经营良好。大部分人把他们的成功在很大程度上归功于他们选择了适合于自己的行业。80%的人在过去工作中曾从事过同样的商品或服务工作。

　　Thinking through an enterprise before the launch is obviously critical. But many entrepreneurs forget that a firm's health in its infancy⁷ many be little indication of how well it will age. You must tenderly monitor its pulse. In their zeal⁸ to expand， small business owners often ignore early warning signs of a stagnant⁹ market or of decaying profitablility. They hopefully pour more and more money into the enterprise， preferring not to acknowledge eroding¹⁰ profit margins¹¹ that mean the marked for their ingenious service or product has evaporated， or that they must cut the payroll¹² or vacate their lavish¹³ offices. Only when the financial well runs dry do they see the seriousness of the illness， and by then the patient is usually too far gone to save.

　　在开办一个新企业之前，对它的发展前景有充分的考虑显然是至关重要的。但是许多企业家忘记了企业在初期的健康状况可能显示不出企业后期的成长过程。你必须小心监测它的脉搏。小企业主在热切扩大经营中常忽视市场萧条或效益下降的早期警告信号。他们希望将愈来愈多的钱投入企业，他们承认利润正在降低，不愿承认他们的服务或产品的市场已经萎缩，也不原承认他们必须削减工人工资或者搬出他们豪华的办公室。只有当财源枯竭时，他们才认识到他们的企业已奄奄一息，面临倒闭。到那时企业已病入膏肓，不可救要。

　　Frequent checks of your firm's vital signs will also guide you to a sensible rate of growth. To snatch opportunity， you must spot the signals that it is time to conquer new markets， add products or perhaps franchise¹⁴ your hot idea.

　　对企业的重要症状经常检查可使企业保持适宜的发展速度。要抓住机会，你必须及时瞄准征服新市场的信号，增加产量或者想出你的特棒的点子。

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