Asia’s low-cost airlines are set for “explosive” growth and likely to equal the market share of their counterparts in the US and Europe in two decades, according to Airbus.

低成本航空公司在亚洲短途客运方面约占9%的市场份额，在北美地区占31%，在欧洲地区占26%。

Low-cost airlines have about 9 per cent of the Asian short-haul passenger traffic, compared with 31 per cent in North America and 26 per cent in Europe.

但空中客车首席商务官约翰?李希(John Leahy)9月3日在香港出席亚洲航空展览会(Asian Aerospace¹ show)时预言：“低成本模式将在亚洲出现爆炸式增长”。

But John Leahy, chief commercial officer for Airbus, predicted at the Asian Aerospace show in Hong Kong on the 3 Sep that “the low-cost model is set to explode in terms of growth in Asia”.

李希补充称：“我认为，其增长速度将比许多人预计的要快得多。我确信未来20年内，它们在所有这三个市场的份额将达到40%左右。”

Mr Leahy added: “I think it’s going to be a lot faster than many people think. I’m sure that all three markets will be at about 40 per cent in 20 years.”

欣丰虎航(Tiger Airways²)和亚洲航空(AirAsia)等亚洲低成本航空运营商已宣布了大举扩张的计划。例如，欣丰虎航打算年底前开通澳大利亚国内航班，目前正计划将其飞机数量从目前的9架增至72架。

Asian low-cost carriers such as Tiger Airways and AirAsia have announced aggressive expansion plans. Tiger, for example, is set to start flights within Australia before the end of the year and is planning to increase its fleet to 72 aircraft from nine at the moment.

欣丰虎航首席财务官彼得?纳格兰(Peter Negline)9月3日谈及印度和中国时表示：“未来20年，那里的增长潜力简直是非常惊人，我们正计划全身心地参与这两个市场。”

Concerning India and China, Peter Negline, Tiger’s chief financial officer, said on the 3 Sep: “The growth potential there is simply astonishing over the coming two decades and we’re looking to participate in that whole-heartedly.”

李希表示，尽管亚洲将赶上美国和欧洲，但有个“小问题”是，在较短途运输方面，亚洲低成本航空公司将主要依赖于宽体机，而非在欧洲倍受青睐的单走道机型。

While Asia will catch up with America and Europe, the “minor twist” is that Asian low-cost airlines will mostly rely on wide-body rather than single-aisle type of aircraft favoured in Europe for shorter distances, according to Mr Leahy.

空中客车9月3日还预计，中国的航空公司将向其订购113架A380客机，尽管中国南方航空(China Southern Air)是迄今唯一已订购这款最大型客机的中国航空运营商。

Airbus also forecast on the 3 Sep that Chinese airlines would order 113 of its A380 aircraft, even though China Southern Air is the only carrier to have so far ordered its largest plane.

尽管中国政府计划限制新航线的推出，但李希表示，机场基础设施和其它方面的不足仍将迫使中印两国在较少的航班上运载更多的乘客：“由于航线拥堵问题，你将会看到中印朝着更大型客机发展的趋势。”

In spite of plans by Beijing to restrict the launch of new airlines, Mr Leahy said airport infrastructure³ and other shortages would still force China and India to get more passengers on to fewer flights: “What you’re going to see is a push towards larger aircraft in China and India as congestion⁴ hits.”

波音(Boeing)执行副总裁拉里?迪肯森(Larry Dickenson)在另一次采访中也预计，中国对更大型客机的需求正在上升。

In a separate interview, Larry Dickenson, Boeing executive vice-president, also predicted increasing Chinese demand for bigger aircraft.

不过，他认为，空中客车对低成本航空公司的预测“略显乐观”：“它们（低成本运营商）正与全球效率最高的一些航空公司竞争，这并不轻松。”

However, he described as “a tad-bit optimistic” the Airbus forecast for low-cost airlines: “They [low-cost carriers] are competing with some of the most efficient airlines in the world and it’s not an easy contest.”

许多亚洲低成本航空公司不仅选择宽体机型，而且还购买两舱飞机，以便从老牌运营商那里吸引商务乘客。

Many Asian low-cost airlines are opting⁵ not only for wide-bodied aircraft but also for a two-class model to lure⁶ business customers away from established carriers.

甘泉航空(Oasis⁷)首席执行官斯蒂芬?米勒(Stephen Miller⁸)表示：“传统运营商最薄弱的环节在哪里？是它们（飞机的）前部。”总部位于香港的甘泉航空经营飞往伦敦和温哥华的航班，但明年也可能增加飞往悉尼和德国的航班。

Stephen Miller, chief executive of Oasis, said: “Where are traditional carriers most vulnerable? They are vulnerable at the front [of the aircraft].” Hong Kong-based Oasis flies to London and Vancouver, but is likely to add next year Sydney as well as a German destination.