China’s spectacular manufacturing growth has left air freight carriers scrambling¹ to develop their activities in the country. But it could be a case of too much, too soon.

两年前，从南京或上海空运货物至欧洲，每公斤运费高达4美元；如今的价格约为2.50美元。南京禄口机场副总经理徐勇表示：“在此项业务上仍有钱赚的航空公司非常少见。”

Two years ago, flying goods from Nanjing or Shanghai to Europe cost up to $4 a kilogramme; today it the price is about $2.50. “Very few carriers are still making money here,’’ says Xu Yong, vice-president of Nanjing airport.

由于机队扩张速度继续超出需求，航空公司正加剧中国一些机场的拥堵问题。徐勇警告称：“我们现在的飞机数量实在是太多了。”

As fleet expansion continues to outpace demand, carriers are adding to congestion² problems at some Chinese airports. “We have just far too many planes now,’’ Mr Xu warns.

荷兰航空公司Martinair副总裁弗兰克?德容(Frank de Jong)表示，中国空运货物出口量正以每年约10%的速度增长，而飞机货物运力的增幅约为25%。

Frank de Jong, vice-president at Martinair, the Dutch carrier, says the volume of Chinese exports by air is growing by about 10 per cent a year but aircraft cargo³ capacity is rising by about 25 per cent.

在亚洲，约半数货物在运输时都是放在定期客运航班的腹舱内。例如，在客运航空公司中，大韩航空(Korean Airlines)拥有全球规模最大的货运业务，其28%的收入来自航空货运业务。

In Asia, about half of cargo transported is carried in the belly⁴ of regular passenger flights. Korean Airlines, for example, has the world’s largest cargo business among passenger airlines, with 28 per cent of its revenue coming from air freight.

在美国，大部分航空货运业务由以UPS和联邦快递(FedEx)为首的专业货运公司负责。中国政府最近已进一步放宽了对上述两家公司的准入限制。

In the US, the bulk of air cargo is handled by the specialist freight industry, led by UPS and FedEx. The Chinese government has recently granted greater access to the two companies.

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师彼得?希尔顿(Peter Hilton)表示：“美国公司可以向中国体系内注入更多运力，并承接向来由亚洲航空公司包揽的货运业务。”

Peter Hilton, analyst⁵ at Credit Suisse, says: “The Americans are being allowed to inject more capacity into the Chinese system and moving goods that would have traditionally gone to Asian carriers.”

中国政府已加大其发展国内航空货运业的努力，鼓励国内航空公司与经验更为丰富的西方货运公司合作。而就在不久前，中国政府的重点还几乎全放在航空客运业的改革和扩张方面。

Beijing has stepped up its efforts to develop a domestic air freight industry, encouraging its airlines to team up with more experienced Western cargo operators. Until recently, the Chinese government had instead focused almost exclusively on overhauling⁶ and expanding the passenger airline industry.

一位香港银行家表示：“从政治角度来看，运送旅客比运输货物更能建立声望，但政府已意识到，货运对出口驱动型的制造业领域至关重要。”

A Hong Kong banker says: “Politically, there’s a lot more prestige in helping⁷ move people rather than goods, but the government has woken up to how crucial freight is for an export-led manufacturing sector⁸.”

在中国内地直接出口的货物中，航空货运的比例日益增加，不仅对航空公司造成影响，还令新加坡和香港等航空货运中心感到忧虑。

The growing proportion of air freight exported directly from the Chinese mainland is not only having an effect on the carriers, it is also worrying for cargo airport hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong.

总部位于香港的国泰航空(Cathay Pacific)发现其货运业务有所放缓。国泰航空货运部门助理经理William Lo表示，来自中国（内地）的激烈竞争，意味着今年其收益可能增长1%至2%，而相比之下，去年的增幅为3%至6%。

Cathay Pacific, the Hong Kong-based carrier, has seen a slowdown in its cargo business. William Lo, assistant manager in Cathay’s cargo division, says intense Chinese competition means yields are likely to rise 1-2 per cent this year, compared with 3-6 per cent last year.

Martinair的德容表示：“目前香港不再制造任何东西，相反，我们看到其周边的这些内地新机场正在发展。显然它们正在分一杯羹。”

Mr de Jong from Martinair says: “Nothing is produced any more in Hong Kong and what we’re seeing instead is all these new Chinese airports growing around it. Obviously they’re taking a piece of the cake.”

深圳机场作为一个货运中心正在迅速发展，使人们将货物运到附近香港机场的动力有所减少。

Shenzhen airport is developing rapidly as a cargo hub, reducing the incentive⁹ to transport goods across the border to neighbouring Hong Kong airport.

翡翠航空(Jade¹⁰ Cargo)是深圳航空与德国汉莎航空(Lufthansa)组建的合资企业，一年前开始运营，此后一直在以每三个月增加一架波音(Boeing)747飞机的速度扩大机队。

Jade Cargo, a joint¹¹ venture between Shenzhen Airlines and German airline Lufthansa, started flying a year ago and has since been adding aircraft at the rate of one Boeing 747 every three months.

翡翠航空营销总监托德? 希尔伯特(Todd Hilbrecht)预计，该航空公司将于2008年实现盈利。他表示：“过去数月（我们的业务）略有放缓，但并不至于造成业务亏损。” Todd Hilbrecht, Jade’s marketing¹² director, expects the airline to become profitable in 2008. He says: “There’s been a slight slowdown in the past months, but not enough to make this a money-losing venture.’’

尽管从南京及其它内地机场运输货物的费用大幅下降，但燃料价格居高不下，继续使得通过船舶运输大型货物比空运更具吸引力。

Although the cost of shipping¹³ goods from Nanjing and other mainland airports has fallen dramatically, high fuel prices continue to make it more attractive to ship large cargo by sea rather than air.

一位业内高管表示：“油价肯定可以抵消运输时间问题的影响。”本月油价一度上探每桶78.77美元的名义历史高位。

“The oil price can certainly offset¹⁴ the issue of delivery time,’’ says one industry executive. This month oil has tested its nominal¹⁵ all-time high of $78.77 a barrel.

Motonari Chiaki是美国航空公司Polar Air Cargo的业务拓展经理。该公司运营着每周从上海和北京出港的14次航班。

Motonari Chiaki is business development manager at Polar Air Cargo, a US carrier that operates 14 flights a week out of Shanghai and Beijing.

他表示：“我认为，许多人不能马上从中国赚到钱。我们仍在赚钱，但是越来越辛苦。”

He says: ”I don’t think many people are making money out of China right now. We still do but it’s getting pretty tough.”