Seismologists have created a new algorithm that could one day help give coastal¹ cities early warning of incoming tsunamis². Right now, tsunami³ warning systems rely on region-specific scenarios⁴ based on previous patterns in that area. That's because scientists use sensors⁵ in the ocean, which can detect abnormal movements but can't make accurate projections⁶ of how much water will hit a coast and how hard. But "most likely" isn't a sure thing. If a real tsunami doesn't match any of the known scenarios, it could result in significant loss of life. 

 

Scientists at the Australian National University developed the Time Reverse Imaging Method to take real-time data from the ocean sensors and use that information to recreate what the tsunami looked like when it was born. Once scientists have the tsunami source pinpointed⁷, they can use it to make better predictions about what will happen once the waves reach shore. This new method is fast enough to compete with existing algorithms but much more accurate.

 

"[The Time Reverse Imaging Method] is not based on some guess, it's based on [real-time] information," said Jan Dettmer, a seismologist at the university. "[This method] would improve accuracy without sacrificing speed." 

 

Dettmer and his colleagues will speak about their tsunami-tracking algorithm at the 171st meeting of the Acoustical⁸ Society of America, held May 23-27 in Salt Lake City.

 

The researchers studied plate tectonics in the Japan Trench⁹ to help create the algorithm. The earth's crust is broken up into large plates that float on top of the mantle¹⁰, which is part of the earth's core. These plates move and push against each other, ultimately creating deep trenches¹¹ and high mountains over the course of millennia¹². 

 

When the movement happens very quickly, it's an earthquake. Earthquakes can cause landmasses to move several meters, and if it happens underwater it creates a tsunami. Tsunamis kill an average of 8,000 people every year, according to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. That's why early warning is so important. 

 

"Once the earthquake happens, then we have minutes," Dettner said. Dettmer's system takes scientists one step closer to accurately¹³ predicting a tsunami's trajectory¹⁴. In order to predict its course, you need know the initial sea surface displacement¹⁵, or, what the wave looked like when it first started.

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