假如死亡能预测，你想知道自己的寿命还剩多久吗？

 

在2015年上映的一部比利时奇幻喜剧电影中，上帝的女儿为了反抗父亲的压迫，将人类的死亡日期发到他们的手机上。

 

人们在得知自己生命的剩余时间后，有人喜悦，有人恐慌，有人愤怒，有人则表现得异常平静。

 

虽然电影是虚构的，现实中没有人的命运可以被剧透，但现在，科学家们宣布他们的确可以预测部分老年人的寿命。

 

据英国《镜报》报道，科学家们在《加拿大医学协会杂志》（Canadian Medical Association Journal）发布了一项研究成果，称他们已经研发出基于大数据的生命预测系统，能够预测6个月内的死亡概率。

 

An online calculator that can help predict when older adults will die has been developed.

科学家们已经研发出可以帮助预测老年人死亡时间的网络计算器。

 

这套算法被命名为“风险评估支持：社区老年人寿命预测工具（Risk Evaluation¹ for Support: Predictions for Elder-Life in the Community Tool ，简称RESPECT）”。

 

The data is based on more than 491,000 older adults who used home care between 2007 and 2013 and is focused on people who are likely to die within the next five years.

研究数据基于2007年至2013年间超过49.1万名接受家庭护理的老年人，研究重点关注可能在未来五年内死亡的人群。

 

The calculated life expectancy² can be as low as four weeks for people who are very frail³.

针对身体十分虚弱的人计算出来的预期寿命最短为四周。

 

People are asked whether they have been diagnosed with diseases like stroke, dementia, or hypertension and whether abilities to carry out tasks over three months had decreased.

研究对象会被询问是否被诊断出患有中风、痴呆或高血压等疾病，以及三个月内的任务完成能力是否有所下降。

 

The ability to make decisions is also asked and whether they have suffered vomiting⁴, swelling⁵, shortness of breath, unplanned weight loss, dehydration⁶ or loss of appetite.

他们还会被询问决策能力如何，是否出现呕吐、肿胀、呼吸急促、非计划性体重减轻、脱水或食欲不振。

 

Researchers found declines in a person's ability to carry out activities of daily living were stronger predictors of six-month mortality than the diseases that a person has.

研究人员发现，一个人日常行为能力的下降比其所患疾病更能预示六个月内的死亡概率。

 

Dr Amy Hsu, an investigator⁷ at the Bruyere Research Institute and at the University of Ottawa in Canada, said: "The RESPECT calculator allows families and their loved ones to plan.

Bruyere研究院和加拿大渥太华大学研究员艾米·许博士称：“‘生命计算器’可以让家人和他们的挚爱有所准备”。

 

"For example, it can help an adult child plan when to take a leave of absence from work to be with a parent or decide when to take the last family vacation together."

“例如，它可以帮助成年子女计划什么时候休假陪伴父母，或者决定什么时候一起度过最后一个家庭假期。”

 

Dr Peter Tanuseputro, at the Ottawa Hospital, said: "Knowing how long a person has to live is essential in making informed decisions about what treatments they should get and where they should get them.

渥太华医院医生彼得·塔努塞普特罗说：“了解一个人还能活多长时间，对他们应该接受哪些治疗以及在哪里接受治疗等问题做出合理判断至关重要。

 

"As a person gets closer to death, the balance shifts from having curative care as the primary goal, to care that maximizes a person's quality of remaining life."

“随着一个人离死亡越来越近，医疗护理从以治疗为主要目的开始向最大限度提高病人剩余生命质量倾斜。”

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