Researchers at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge¹ National Laboratory have developed a population distribution model that provides unprecedented² county-level predictions of where people will live in the U.S. in the coming decades. Initially³ developed to assist in the siting of new energy infrastructure⁴, the team's model has a broad range of implications from urban planning to climate change adaptation. The study is published in the journal Proceedings⁵ of the National Academy of Sciences.

 

"We do a census⁶ every 10 years because those data help us do long-term socioeconomic planning," said Budhendra Bhaduri, who leads ORNL's Geographic⁷ Information Science and Technology group. "Population projection⁸ numbers are important, but many pressing societal needs also require an understanding of where people are going to be. This has always been a challenge; we've never had a good method to make future projections⁹ spatially¹⁰ explicit¹¹."

 

The new model builds on years of research in the development of two other ORNL technologies that supply geographical¹² distribution of population: LandScan Global provides one-kilometer resolution for the world and LandScan USA provides 90-meter resolution for the U.S. Incorporating regional variables such as land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, roads and population movement allowed the researchers to refine future population distributions by county.

 

"We took the U.S. national population total and downscaled to the county level to examine how local population growths vary geographically," said ORNL's Jacob McKee, the study's lead author.

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