华盛顿大学研究人员发表在《柳叶刀》的研究报告预测，全球人口将在2064年达到顶峰，约为97亿，2100年将降至约88亿。研究人员称，这将是第一次由生育率下降而导致的全球人口下降。

 

According to a new study published in the Lancet journal, the world population will decline for the first time in the next century.

发表在《柳叶刀》杂志上的一项新研究称，下个世纪全球人口将首次下降。

 

The world's population is currently estimated to be at 7.8 billion people. According to the estimate, the global population would peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064. Then it will fall to 8.79 billion in 2100.

目前，全球人口预计为 78 亿。 据估计，全球人口将在2064年达到峰值，约为97亿。然后在 2100 年下降到 87.9 亿。

 

Due to low birth rates and aging populations, up to 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Portugal, South Korea, and others, might see their populations fall by more than 50%.

由于低出生率和人口老龄化，包括日本、泰国、意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、韩国等在内的多达 23 个国家的人口可能会下降 50% 以上。

 

China is the world's most populated country. But it will see its population drop from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million in 2100.

中国是目前世界上人口最多的国家，但到2100年，中国的人口将从 2017 年的 14 亿下降到 7.32 亿。

 

The study noted¹ the global trend of population decline. But it also predicted that some sections of the world would witness an increase in population.

这项研究指出了全球人口下降的趋势，也预测世界某些地区将出现人口增长。

 

This encompasses² North Africa, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. It is likely to triple in population from 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100 over the century.

人口增长地区包括北非、中东和撒哈拉以南非洲。在本世纪内，这些地区的人口可能会从2017年的10.3亿增加到2100年的30.7亿。

 

According to the study, the population of India, the world's second-most populous⁴ country, will be approximately 1.09 billion in 2100.

该研究指出，2100年，世界第二人口大国印度的人口将为10.9亿左右。

 

World population decline driven by fertility decline

生育率下降导致全球人口下降

 

Lead study author and Professor of Global Health at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation⁵ (IHME), Stein Emil Vollset, told IFLScience, "The last time that global population declined was in the mid³ 14th century, due to the Black Plague. If our forecast is correct, it will be the first time population decline is driven by fertility decline, as opposed to events such as a pandemic or famine."

该研究主要作者、华盛顿大学健康指标与评估研究所全球健康教授斯坦因·埃米尔·沃尔赛特告诉IFLScience网站：“全球人口上一次下降是在 14 世纪中叶，是黑死病导致的。如果我们的预测正确，这将是第一次由生育率下降而导致人口下降，而不是由于疫情或饥荒等原因。”

 

The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman has over her lifetime. The worldwide total fertility rate is likely to steadily⁶ drop, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100. It is significantly below the minimum rate (2.1 live births per woman) necessary to maintain population levels, he added.

生育率是女性一生中平均生育子女的数量。全球总生育率可能会稳步下降，从2017年的2.37下降到2100年的1.66。这远低于维持人口水平所需的最低生育率（平均每位女性 2.1的生育率）。

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