Increased greenhouse gas emissions¹ from the release of carbon dioxide and methane² contained in the Arctic permafrost could result in $43 trillion in additional economic damage by the end of the next century, according to researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University of Colorado. In a letter published today (21 September) in the journal Nature Climate Change, the researchers have for the first time modelled the economic impact caused by melting permafrost in the Arctic to the end of the twenty-second century, on top of the damage already predicted by climate and economic models. 

 

The Arctic is warming at a rate which is twice the global average, due to anthropogenic, or human-caused, greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions continue to rise at their current rates, Arctic warming will lead to the widespread thawing³ of permafrost and the release of hundreds of billions of tonnes of methane and CO2 - about 1,700 gigatonnes of carbon are held in permafrost soils in the form of frozen organic matter. 

 

Rising emissions will result in both economic and non-economic impacts, as well as a higher chance of catastrophic events, such as the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, increased flooding and extreme weather. Economic impacts directly affect a country's gross domestic product (GDP), such as the loss of agricultural output and the additional cost of air conditioning, while non-economic impacts include effects on human health and ecosystems⁴. 

 

The researchers' models predict $43 trillion in economic damage could be caused by the release of these greenhouse gases, an amount equivalent to more than half the current annual output of the global economy. This brings the total predicted impact of climate change by 2200 to $369 trillion, up from $326 trillion - an increase of 13 percent. 

 

"These results show just how much we need urgent action to slow the melting of the permafrost in order to minimise the scale of the release of greenhouse gases," said co-author Dr Chris Hope from the Cambridge Judge Business School.

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