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Global Fossil-Fuel Demand Can Peak Before 2030—Here’s How

CLIMATEWIRE | Global demand for coal, oil and gas may peak before 2030, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
The IEA's 2023 World Energy Outlook predicts that the share of fossil fuels in the global energy supply will drop to 73 percent from 80 percent by the end of the decade, based on current energy and climate policies. Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions1 could also peak by 2025, the report found, but will remain far too high to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius2.
“The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ — and the sooner the better for all of us,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. “Governments, companies and investors3 need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them."
Clean energy will play a "significantly greater role" in 2030 than today, the IEA found, with almost 10 times as many electric cars on the road and renewables making up nearly half the global electricity mix. Meanwhile, the rate of new fossil fuel infrastructure4 has slowed, with worldwide additions of coal and natural-gas-fired power plants decreasing by half from earlier peaks, according to the report.
Birol emphasized that a quicker switch to clean energy offers "immense benefits."
“Taking into account the ongoing5 strains and volatility6 in traditional energy markets today," he said, "claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.”
The IEA analyzed7 energy trends in three scenarios8: one based on current energy and climate policies, one based on energy and climate targets set by governments and one that meets the goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
It found that the investment in oil and gas is almost twice the level required in the net-zero emissions scenario9. This “signals a clear risk of protracted10 fossil fuel use that would put the 1.5 °C out of reach,” IEA wrote in the report.
Under the scenario where current policies remain the same, renewables are still set to contribute 80 percent of all new power capacity in 2030, the report said. Solar photovoltaic systems will make up more than half of that new renewable energy supply, with room for growth as manufacturing capabilities11 also increase worldwide, the IEA said.
In the United States, electric vehicles will make up 50 percent of new car registrations12 by 2030, according to the report. IEA's 2021 outlook predicted a share of just 12 percent; the agency attributes the jump to Inflation Reduction Act incentives13 like the $7,500 tax credit for EV consumers.
EV adoption14 will vary greatly between states, said Loren McDonald, CEO of EVAdoption, which performs data analysis of EVs.
In states where adoption is already high — like California, Oregon and Washington — EVs would likely need to hit 80 percent of new car registrations for the U.S. to achieve the 50 percent threshold. That's because at least 20 other states will adopt EVs far slower, reaching at most 20 percent of new car registrations by 2030, McDonald said in an interview.
“My own forecasts are in that ballpark, right around 50 percent,” McDonald said “It’s certainly possible, if everything falls into place.”
But the IEA report warns that much of the clean energy supply chain is concentrated in a few countries. It's an issue the International Monetary15 Fund also raised earlier this month, emphasizing that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could jeopardize16 renewable energy development. Several critical minerals — crucial to electric vehicles and other technologies — come from a handful of countries.
Trade is thus essential to reach net-zero goals and deploy17 solar energy capacity worldwide, the IEA concluded.
This story also appears in Energywire.
Reprinted from E&E News with permission from POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2023. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environment professionals.


1 emissions 1a87f8769eb755734e056efecb5e2da9     
排放物( emission的名词复数 ); 散发物(尤指气体)
  • Most scientists accept that climate change is linked to carbon emissions. 大多数科学家都相信气候变化与排放的含碳气体有关。
  • Dangerous emissions radiate from plutonium. 危险的辐射物从钚放散出来。
2 Celsius AXRzl     
  • The temperature tonight will fall to seven degrees Celsius.今晚气温将下降到七摄氏度。
  • The maximum temperature in July may be 36 degrees Celsius.七月份最高温度可能达到36摄氏度。
3 investors dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99     
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 )
  • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
  • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
4 infrastructure UbBz5     
  • We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
  • We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设,发展各类群众文化。
5 ongoing 6RvzT     
  • The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
  • The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。
6 volatility UhSwC     
  • That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
  • Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而,由于相当长的时间里波动性小,灾难短视就获胜了。
7 analyzed 483f1acae53789fbee273a644fdcda80     
v.分析( analyze的过去式和过去分词 );分解;解释;对…进行心理分析
  • The doctors analyzed the blood sample for anemia. 医生们分析了贫血的血样。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • The young man did not analyze the process of his captivation and enrapturement, for love to him was a mystery and could not be analyzed. 这年轻人没有分析自己蛊惑著迷的过程,因为对他来说,爱是个不可分析的迷。 来自《简明英汉词典》
8 scenarios f7c7eeee199dc0ef47fe322cc223be88     
  • Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者,根据一些事故解说,石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
  • Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样,我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
9 scenario lZoxm     
  • But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
  • This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。
10 protracted 7bbc2aee17180561523728a246b7f16b     
  • The war was protracted for four years. 战争拖延了四年。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • We won victory through protracted struggle. 经过长期的斗争,我们取得了胜利。 来自《简明英汉词典》
11 capabilities f7b11037f2050959293aafb493b7653c     
n.能力( capability的名词复数 );可能;容量;[复数]潜在能力
  • He was somewhat pompous and had a high opinion of his own capabilities. 他有点自大,自视甚高。 来自辞典例句
  • Some programmers use tabs to break complex product capabilities into smaller chunks. 一些程序员认为,标签可以将复杂的功能分为每个窗格一组简单的功能。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
12 registrations d53ddf87a983739d49e0da0c1fa64925     
n.登记( registration的名词复数 );登记项目;登记(或注册、挂号)人数;(管风琴)音栓配合(法)
  • In addition to the check-in procedures, the room clerks are customarily responsible for recording advance registrations. 除了办理住宿手续外,客房登记员按惯例还负责预约登记。 来自辞典例句
  • Be the Elekta expert for products registrations in China. 成为在中国注册产品的医科达公司专家。 来自互联网
13 incentives 884481806a10ef3017726acf079e8fa7     
激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 ); 刺激; 诱因; 动机
  • tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
  • Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者,提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
14 adoption UK7yu     
  • An adoption agency had sent the boys to two different families.一个收养机构把他们送给两个不同的家庭。
  • The adoption of this policy would relieve them of a tremendous burden.采取这一政策会给他们解除一个巨大的负担。
15 monetary pEkxb     
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
16 jeopardize s3Qxd     
  • Overworking can jeopardize your health.工作过量可能会危及你的健康。
  • If you are rude to the boss it may jeopardize your chances of success.如果你对上司无礼,那就可能断送你成功的机会。
17 deploy Yw8x7     
  • The infantry began to deploy at dawn.步兵黎明时开始进入战斗位置。
  • The president said he had no intention of deploying ground troops.总统称并不打算部署地面部队。