The breeding population of chinstrap penguins² has declined significantly as temperatures have rapidly warmed on the Antarctic Peninsula, according to researchers funded in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF). The study indicates that changing climatic conditions, rather than the impact of tourism, have had the greatest effect on the chinstrap population.

 

Ron Naveen, founder³ of a nonprofit science and conservation organization, Oceanites, Inc., of Chevy Chase, Md., documented the decline in a paper published in the journal Polar Biology. Naveen and coauthor Heather Lynch, of Stony⁴ Brook⁵ University, are researchers with the Antarctic Site Inventory⁶ (ASI).

 

The paper's findings are based on an analysis of data collected during fieldwork conducted in December 2011 at Deception⁷ Island, one of Antarctica's busiest tourist locations.

 

"We now know that two of the three predominant penguin¹ species in the peninsula--chinstrap and Adélie--are declining significantly in a region where, in the last 60 years, it's warmed by 3 degrees Celsius⁹ (5 degrees Fahrenheit) annually¹⁰ and by 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) in winter," said Naveen. "By contrast, Gentoo penguins are expanding both in numbers and in range. These divergent responses are an ongoing¹¹ focus of our Inventory work effort."

 

The ASI has been collecting and analyzing¹² Antarctic Peninsula-wide penguin population data since 1994, and these new findings have important implications both for the advancement¹³ of Antarctic science and the management of Antarctica by the Antarctic Treaty nations. The United States is a signatory（签约国） to the Treaty.

 

The Inventory is supported in part by NSF's Office of Polar Programs and also by public contributions. The project's fieldwork at Deception Island was assisted by a grant from The Tinker Foundation.

 

Through Polar Programs, NSF carries out its presidential mandate¹⁴ to manage the U.S. Antarctic Program, which coordinates¹⁵ all U.S. research on the southernmost continent and in the Southern Ocean.

 

ASI is the only science project tracking penguin population changes throughout the entire Antarctic Peninsula region.

 

"Our Deception Island work, using the yacht Pelagic as our base, occurred over 12 days and in the harshest of conditions--persistent clouds, precipitation and high winds, the latter sometimes reaching gale¹⁶ force and requiring a lot of patience waiting out the blows. But, in the end, we achieved the first-ever, one-season survey of all chinstraps breeding on the island," Naveen said.

 

There has been speculation¹⁷ that tourism may have a negative impact on breeding chinstrap penguins--especially at Deception Island's largest chinstrap colony, known as Baily Head.

 

Naveen oversaw¹⁸ the Deception Island census¹⁹ effort. Lynch, the Inventory's chief scientist, undertook subsequent analyses.

 

The results and analyses, according to Lynch, shed new light on the massive changes occurring in this region.

 

"Our team found 79,849 breeding pairs of chinstrap penguins at Deception, including 50,408 breeding pairs at Baily Head. Combined with a simulation designed to capture uncertainty²⁰ in an earlier population estimate, there is strong evidence to suggest a significant decline, greater than 50 percent, in the abundance of chinstraps breeding at Baily Head since 1986-87.

 

"The decline of chinstrap penguins at Baily Head is consistent with declines in this species throughout the region, including at sites that receive little or no tourism; further, as a consequence of regional environmental changes that currently represent the dominant⁸ influence on penguin dynamics²¹, we cannot ascribe any direct link in this study between chinstrap declines and tourism."

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