A new report on sea level rise recommends that the State of Maryland should plan for a rise in sea level of as much as 2 feet by 2050. Led by the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, the report was prepared by a panel of scientific experts in response to Governor Martin O'Malley's Executive Order on Climate Change and "Coast Smart" Construction. The projections¹ are based on an assessment² of the latest climate change science and federal guidelines. "The State of Maryland is committed to taking the necessary actions to adapt to the rising sea and guard against the impacts of extreme storms," said Governor Martin O'Malley. "In doing so, we must stay abreast³ of the latest climate science to ensure that we have a sound understanding of our vulnerability and are making informed decisions about how best to protect our land, infrastructure⁴, and most importantly, the citizens of Maryland."

 

The independent, scientific report recommends that is it is prudent⁵ to plan for sea level to be 2.1 feet higher in 2050 along Maryland's shorelines than it was in 2000 in order to accommodate the high end of the range of the panel's projections. Maryland has 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands that will be impacted. The experts' best estimate for the amount of sea-level rise in 2050 is 1.4 feet. It is unlikely to be less than 0.9 feet or greater than 2.1 feet. Their best estimate for sea level rise by 2100 is 3.7 feet. They concluded that it is unlikely to be less than 2.1 feet or more than 5.7 feet based on current scientific understanding.

 

"This reassessment narrows the probable range of sea level rise based on the latest science," said Donald Boesch, president of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science and chair of the group of experts that assembled the report. "It provides the State with sea level rise projections based on best scientific understanding to ensure that infrastructure is sited and designed in a manner that will avoid or minimize future loss or damage."

 

These estimates were made based on the various contributors to sea level rise: thermal⁶ expansion of ocean volume as a result of warming, the melting of glaciers⁷ and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, changing ocean dynamics⁸ such as the slowing of the Gulf⁹ Stream, and vertical¹⁰ land movement.

 

"While there is little we can do now to reduce the amount of sea-level rise by the middle of the century, steps taken over the next 30 years to control greenhouse gas emissions¹¹ and stabilize¹² global temperatures will largely determine how great the sea level rise challenge will be for coastal¹³ residents at the end of this century and beyond," said Dr. Boesch.

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