Many have assumed that warmer winters as a result of climate change would increase the growth of trees and shrubs¹（灌木） because the growing season would be longer. But shrubs achieve less yearly growth when cold winter temperatures are interrupted by temperatures warm enough to trigger growth. "When winter temperatures fluctuate（波动） between being cold and warm enough for growth, plants deplete² their resources trying to photosynthesize and end the winter with fewer reserves than they initially³ had. In the summer they have to play catch up," said Melanie Harsch, a University of Washington postdoctoral researcher in biology and applied⁴ mathematics. She is lead author of a paper on the subject recently published in PLOS One.

 

The roots are especially sensitive to temperature fluctuations⁵, Harsch said. Warming winters result in higher root respiration⁶, which uses up carbon reserves as plants make and release oxygen, leading to less carbon available during the regular growing season.

 

Harsch and her colleagues studied two species of shrubs on Campbell Island, an uninhabited UNESCO World Heritage site in the southwest Pacific Ocean about 375 miles south of New Zealand's mainland. They studied two large shrubs, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium, which are evergreen⁷ broadleaf species that can grow up to about 15 feet tall and live up to 240 years.

 

Researchers found that while warmer, drier winters helped seedlings⁸ get established, it adversely⁹ affected¹⁰ growth of older plants.

 

"For growth to occur you need sufficient precipitation（降水，沉淀） and temperature and nutrients¹¹. Growth should only happen during the summer on Campbell Island when temperatures are above 5 degrees Celsius¹²," Harsch said. Five degrees C is about 40 F. "On Campbell Island most winters are cool and below this 5 degrees Celsius, so the plants are not active. The plants we studied are evergreen and there is little snow cover, so they are sensitive to changes in temperature."

 

In this study, researchers cut out discs, called "cookies," from just above the shrubs' root collar, and measured the width between each ring to determine growth. They found that plant growth decreased as winter temperatures went up.

 

"On Campbell Island the snow is ephemeral, so the plants usually are not covered," Harsch said. "If we're going to see an effect in changing winter conditions, we're going to see it at Campbell Island decades before we see it at, say, Mt. Rainier, where there is a lot of snow and winters are colder."

 

Harsch said plants in areas like Campbell Island may eventually adjust to warmer winters, but the transition period will be tough as temperatures bounce above and below what plants need to stay dormant¹³（休眠的，静止的）, causing the plants to draw down their resources.

 

"It may eventually be warm enough in the winters so that plants can photosynthesize and grow year round, like they do in the tropics," she said. "It's this transition part that plants are not adapted for."

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