9.  On average, middle-aged¹ consumers devote 39% of their retail² expenditure³ to
department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is
only 25%. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the
next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during
that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to
replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products
intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.
 
Sample Essay 1:
       The argument that department retail sales will increase in the next 10 years and
thus department stores should begin to replace products to attract middle-aged
consumers is not entirely⁴ logically convincing, since it omits certain crucial
assumptions
       First of all, the argument ignores the absolute amount of retail expenditure of
middle-aged and younger consumers devoted⁵ to department store products and services.
Although younger consumers spend a smaller percentage of their retail expenditure to
department store products than do the middle-aged consumers, they might actually
spend more in terms of the absolute amount.
       Even if middle-aged consumers are spending more than younger ones in
department stores, the argument ignores the possibility that the trend may change within
the next decade. Younger consumers might prefer to shop in department stores than in
other types of stores, and middle-aged consumers might turn to other types of stores, too.
This will lead to a higher expenditure of younger consumers in department stores than
that of middle-aged consumers.
       Besides, the argument never addresses the population difference between middle-
aged consumers and younger ones. Suppose there are more younger consumers than the
middle-aged ones now, the total population base of younger consumers will be bigger
than that of the middle-aged ones if both of them grow at the same rate in the next
decade. Thus there will be a bigger younger consumer base.
       Based on the reasons I listed above, the argument is not completely sound. The
evidence in support of the conclusion does little to prove the conclusion since it does
not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have
been more convincing by making it clear that the absolute population of middle-aged
consumers are higher than that of the younger consumers and the number will continue
to grow in the next decade, and that the middle-aged consumers will continue to spend
more money in department stores than younger consumers do in the next decade.
 
Sample Essay 2:
      The argument that retailers⁶ should replace some of the products intended to attract
the younger consumers with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumers is
not entirely logically convincing, since it ignores certain crucial assumptions.
      First, the argument omits the assumption that the business volumes of both the
middle-aged consumers and the younger consumers are the same. If the business
volume of the middle-aged consumers' 39% is smaller than that of the younger
consumers' 25%, the retail sales will not increase during the next decade.
      Second, even if the business volumes of both the middle-aged consumers and the
younger consumers were the same in the last decade, the increase of the middle-aged
people in the next decade is not same as the increase of the retail expenditure, for the
retail trade depends more on such factors as the economic circumstances, people's
consuming desire.
      Finally, the argument never assumes the increase of the younger consumers within
the next decade. If the younger consumer increase at the same rate and spend the same
amount of money on the goods and services of department stores, the retailers should
never ignore them.
      Thus the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the
conclusion that the growing number of middle-aged people within the next decade does
little to prove the conclusion-that department stores should begin to replace some of
their products to attract the middle-aged consumers-since it does not address the
assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been
strengthened by making it clear that the business volumes of both types of consumers
are the same and comparable, that the increase of a certain type of consumers are
correlated with the increase of the retail sales, and that the growth rate of the younger
consumers are the same as that of the middle-aged consumers.
 
Sample Essay 3:
      Based on an expected increase in the number of middle-aged people during the
next decade, the author predicts that retail sales at department stores will increase
significantly over the next ten years. To bolster⁷ this prediction, the author cites statistics
showing that middle-aged people devote a much higher percentage of their retail
expenditure to department-store services and products than younger consumers do.
Since the number of middle-aged consumers is on the rise and since they spend more
than younger people on department-store goods and services, the author further
recommends that department stores begin to adjust their inventories⁸ to capitalize on this
trend. Specifically, it is recommended that department stores increase their inventory⁹ of
products aimed at middle-aged consumers and decrease their inventory, of products
aimed at younger consumers. This argument is problematic for two reasons.
      First, an increase in the number of middle-aged people does not necessarily
portend¹⁰ an overall increase in department-store sales. It does so only on the assumption
that other population groups will remain relatively¹¹ constant. For example, if the
expected increase in the number of middle-aged people is offset¹² by an equally
significant decrease in the number of younger people, there will be little or no net gain
in sales.
      Second, in recommending that department stores replace products intended to
attract younger consumers with products more suitable to middle-aged consumers, the
author assumes that the number of younger consumers will not also increase. Since a
sizable increase in the population of younger consumers could conceivably offset the
difference in the retail expenditure patterns of younger and middle-aged consumers, it
would be unwise to make the recommended inventory adjustment tacking¹³ evidence to
support this assumption.
      In conclusion, this argument is unacceptable. To strengthen the argument the
author would have to provide evidence that the population of younger consumers will
remain relatively constant over the next decade

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