不到18个月前，首只权证才在中国证券交易所亮相，而现在，中国已可称为是全球最大的权证市场。

Less than 18 months after the first warrant was issued on China's stock exchanges, the country now boasts the world's biggest market for the financial instrument.

中国投资者对于权证的痴迷，是一系列最后关头股市改革措施所带来的意外结果，同时也一直受到投机热潮的推动。但是，这种热潮可能难以持续下去。

Chinese investors¹' love affair with warrants was an accidental outcome arising from a set of last-gasp stock market reforms and has been stoked up by a speculative² fever that may not last.

与期权一样，权证允许投资者在将来的某个日期、以一个固定的价格买进一种证券。同时，权证自身也可以买卖，使之成为了一种潜在的投机目标。
Like options, warrants allow investors to buy a security at a future date for a fixed³ price. Warrants can also be bought and sold in their own right, making them potential objects of speculation⁴ as well.


根据高盛(Goldman Sachs)编制的数据，2006年头11个月，上海及深圳证交所权证成交额达到了2212亿美元，而同期内香港的权证成交额为2078亿美元。

According to data compiled by Goldman Sachs, warrant turnover⁵ on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached $221.2bn over the first 11 months of 2006, against $207.8bn in Hong Kong.

香港市场全年的成交额为2300亿美元，而中国的不完全统计显示，最终数字将超过2440亿美元。

Hong Kong's full-year turnover came in at $230bn, with incomplete statistics for China suggesting its final figure would exceed $244bn.

尽管如此，中国内地市场交易的权证产品只有27只，而香港则高达2000只以上。

This is in spite of only 27 warrants being traded in China compared with more than 2,000 in Hong Kong.

湘财证券(Xiangcai Securities)衍生产品分析师朱华成表示，中国内地权证在行权前可能换手150次，而在更为成熟的市场，可能仅换手10次。在中国内地，权证被用来帮助国有上市公司摆脱一种尴尬的约束。国有上市公司有两类股票，一种可以在证交所上市交易，另一种则无法流通。

Zhu Huacheng, derivative⁶ products analyst⁷ with Xiangcai Securities, said China warrants could change hands up to 150 times before exercise, compared with just 10 times in more mature markets. Warrants were embraced in China to help listed state-owned enterprises out of an awkward bind⁸. Listed state companies had two classes of shares, one that could be traded on stock exchanges and the other that could not.

为了实现非流通"国有股"的价值，国有企业需要流通这些股票。这需要得到小股东的批准，而小股东则担心释放大量悬置的国有股会起到稀释股权的作用。

To realise the value of their non-tradeable "state shares", state-owned enterprises needed to render them tradeable. This required approval from minority shareholders⁹, who feared dilution¹⁰ from the release of a large overhang of state shares.

为了争取小股东的支持，国有上市公司免费向他们派发红股，某些情况下还免费派送权证。而在香港和其它市场，投资者则是购买由独立的第三方（如投资银行）发行的权证。

To win their minorities over, state companies gifted investors free bonus shares and, in some cases, free warrants as well. In Hong Kong and other markets, investors buy warrants issued by independent third parties, such as investment banks.

高盛执行董事兼香港证券化衍生产品主管李颂慈(Cheril Lee)表示, 市场走势将取决于中国监管机构进一步的举措。监管机构尚未全面批准第三方发行的做法，但对这种做法给予了一次性的批准。

Cheril Lee, executive director and head of Goldman's securitised derivative products in Hong Kong, said the market's momentum¹¹ would depend on further initiatives from China's regulator, which has not yet given blanket approval for third-party issues but approves them on a one-off basis.


李颂慈表示："他们似乎对权证颇为支持。如果监管机构允许第三方权证，则市场可能维持（当前的水平）。"

"It seems like they are quite supportive of warrants," Ms Lee said. "If the regulator allows third party warrants the market can stay [at current levels]."