Dear Economist,

为了逃离地狱般的底特律，我最好的朋友--单身、男性、犹太人、年薪六位数--正在发疯似地面试。他只得到了一份工作邀请，不过工作地点是在洛杉矶，待遇不错（比现在的薪水高40%）。由于对底特律的约会场所彻底失望，他决定离开。

My best friend - single, male, Jewish, six-figure earner - has been interviewing like mad in order to escape a hellhole called Detroit. He has only had one job offer, albeit¹ an excellent one (40 per cent salary increase) in LA. Thoroughly² frustrated³ by the dating scene in Motown, he has decided⁴ to move.

我认为他有些操之过急。

I think he is being too hasty.

他最终的目的地当然应该是纽约，那里可以约会的犹太姑娘数量要多得多。我担心，如果一年后他觉得洛杉矶并不十分适合他（我认为肯定不适合他），他会无处可去。

His final destination is surely New York, where the availability of dateable Jewish women is far greater. I am concerned that he won't be employable if he decides after a year that LA isn't really for him (it won't be).

他聪明过人而且才能出众，因此我确信，他能够在纽约找到一份条件相当的工作。只是需要时间而已。

He's an intelligent person with desirable skills so I have no doubt that he will be able to secure a comparable job in NYC. It only takes time.

我怎么才能让他相信他犯了一个错误？

How do I convince him that he's making a mistake?

约翰

John, via e-mail

亲爱的约翰：
Dear John,

你说的有一定道理。实物期权理论认为，不应天真地选择第一个净现值为正的方案。后面可能会出现更好的选择，选择第一个将错失以后的机会。

There is something in what you say. Real option theory states that you shouldn't naively⁵ take the first option with a positive net present value. Better options may come along later, and taking the first option will preclude⁶ them.

你的朋友不应过早行使选择权。

Your friend must not exercise his option too soon.


然而，这一理论的基础值得商榷。该理论假设，第一个选择不可撤销，而"无所作为"还会有其它选择。可是，迁往洛杉矶真的会阻碍他日后迁往纽约吗？即便如此，留在底特律真的会让机会之门敞开，而不是在他的履历上增加一个污点吗？我不太确定。

However, the foundations of this theory need to be questioned. It assumes that the first choice really is irreversible, and that inaction would keep options open. But is it true that moving to LA will cut off a later move to New York? Even if so, is time in Detroit really keeping open the window of opportunity, rather than spreading a stain on the resume? I am not so sure.

最重要的是，甚至连实物期权理论都承认，如果第一个工作机会足够好，你就应当接受。40%的加薪幅度十分可观。你想把可以约会的姑娘都留给自己吗？

Most important, even real option theory admits that you should take the first offer if it is good enough. A 40 per cent raise is plenty. Are you trying to keep the dateable women for yourself?