随着大宗商品价格连续第5年迅猛上涨，矿业企业高管们比以往更为乐观。

As the boom in commodities prices stretches into its fifth year, mining company executives are more bullish than ever.

力拓(Rio Tinto)是最新一家预测金属价格前景走强的公司，并且在用实际行动证明自己的观点。上周，这家英国矿业集团首席执行官艾博年(Tom Albanese)抛弃力拓的谨慎传统，以380亿美元协议收购加拿大铝业(Alcan)，成为采矿业迄今最大规模的收购。

Rio Tinto is the latest company to predict a strong outlook for metals prices - and is putting its money where its mouth is. Tom Albanese, the UK mining group's new chief executive, last week cast aside Rio's reputation for caution with a $38bn (€27.5bn, ￡18.5bn) agreed offer for Alcan, the Canadian aluminium¹ producer, in the largest takeover bid the mining industry has seen.

一家向来置身于并购风潮之外的企业，决定提出一个如此雄心勃勃的报价，这一事实或许会让投资者放心，这种繁荣局面不会很快结束。此举还将给英美资源集团(Anglo American)、斯特拉塔(Xstrata)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等竞争对手构成压力，迫使它们也拿出数十亿美元以上规模的交易。

The fact that a company that usually kept out of the mergers² and acquisitions fray³ decided⁴ to launch such an ambitious bid may give investors⁵ reassurance⁶ that the boom is not about to end. It will also put pressure on rivals such as Anglo American, Xstrata and BHP Billiton to unveil their own multi-billion-dollar deals.

力拓的善意收购报价规模，超过了竞购加拿大铝业的对手--美国铝业(Alcoa)早些时候提出的275亿美元敌意收购出价。当被问及如何证明比竞购对手高出33%的收购报价是合理的，艾博年表示："这全是因为中国。"

Rio's friendly bid trumped⁷ an earlier hostile $27.5bn offer from Alcan's US rival Alcoa. When asked how he could justify⁸ paying a premium⁹ of 33 per cent to Alcoa's bid, Mr Albanese said: "It's all about China."

中国强劲的经济增长，及其对铜、铁矿石和铝等原材料的强烈需求，提供了大宗商品价格在过去5年迅速上涨的基础。此外，由于熟练工人和钻探机等专业设备都面临短缺，新矿开发时间超过预期，也推高了价格。

China's strong economic growth and its hunger for raw materials such as copper¹⁰, iron ore and aluminium have provided the foundations for sharp rises in commodities prices over the past five years. Prices have also been driven higher by new mines taking longer than expected to develop, because both skilled workers and specialist equipment such as drills have been in short supply.

矿业高管们表示，金属短缺和中国对金属的需求，在短期内都不会发生变化，而印度的经济增长将为大宗商品价格提供进一步支撑。他们日益主张，本轮大宗商品周期事实上是一个"超级周期"，即多年价格高企，上一次发生在上世纪60年代的日本工业化时期。

Mining executives say that neither the shortages of metals nor China's demand for them will change any time soon - and that the growth of India will provide further support for commodities prices. They increasingly argue that this commodities cycle is in fact a "super-cycle" - a long period of higher prices last seen in the 1960s, when Japan was industrialising.

此外，矿业企业开始将超级周期理论当作大胆并购的依据。正如力拓对加拿大铝业的竞购报价所示，即便是向来保守的企业，也已愿意为收购高质量资产支付高价。

Moreover, mining companies are starting to use the super- cycle theory as a rationale for a more aggressive stance on mergers and acquisitions. As demonstrated by Rio's bid for Alcan, even traditionally conservative companies are prepared to pay up to secure high-quality assets.

但是，分析师对大宗商品价格前景不那么有信心。花旗集团(Citigroup)最近表示，根据该集团对铝价的长期预测，收购加拿大铝业只能小幅提高力拓的每股收益。花旗集团表示："我们需要假设铝价未来几年内在每磅1.26美元以上，并且长期价格在每磅1美元，这笔交易才划算，而我们目前对铝的周期价格估计是每磅1.10美元，长期价格为80美分。"

But analysts¹² are less confident about the outlook for commodities prices. This week Citigroup said the takeover of Alcan would only slightly improve Rio's earnings¹³ per share, based on the bank's long-term forecasts for the aluminium price. "We need to assume aluminium prices of more than $1.26 per pound for the next few years and a long-term price of $1 per pound to make this deal work. Our current assumptions are for cyclical prices of $1.10 per pound and a long-term price of 80 cents," it said.

矿业企业对金属价格走强的乐观情绪，是解释当前整合浪潮的一个原因，此外还存在其它方面可以说更为紧迫的原因。

While mining companies' optimism about the strength of metals prices is one factor, there are other, arguably more pressing reasons for the current wave of consolidation¹⁴.

长期主导该行业的西方矿业企业认为，要想避免自己成为并购目标，它们必须尽可能地扩大规模。这种扩张也出现在钢铁行业，例如米塔尔钢铁(Mittal Steel)以270亿欧元收购阿塞洛(Arcelor)，改变了钢铁业的竞争格局。两个行业的高管们都主张，整合将带来协同优势，并在根据需求安排生产方面更有章法，有助于打破传统的兴衰模式。

The western mining companies that have long dominated the industry feel they need to be as big as possible if they are to avoid becoming targets themselves. This bulking-up is also happening in the steel industry, where Mittal Steel's €27bn takeover of Arcelor transformed the competitive landscape. In both industries, executives argue that consolidation will bring synergies and more discipline in matching production to demand, helping¹⁵ to break the old pattern of boom and bust¹⁶.

与钢铁业相比，西方矿业企业尤其渴望获得"关键规模"，以抗衡新兴市场的矿业及金属集团。俄罗斯铝业(Rusal)和Norilsk Nickel，巴西的淡水河谷(CVRD)，以及中国五矿集团(Minmetals)正在迅速发展，并在其本土市场以外日趋敢作敢为。

In mining, however, western companies are particularly keen to gain critical mass in order to compete with mining and metals groups from emerging markets. Companies such as Rusal and Norilsk Nickel of Russia, CVRD of Brazil, and China's Minmetals are growing fast and playing an increasingly aggressive role outside their domestic markets.

政治风险咨询公司Frontier Strategy Group的董事总经理亚力克斯o戈尔巴斯基(Alex Gorbansky)表示，力拓竞购加拿大铝业，表明西方大型矿商很紧张。"这主要是因为矿业企业希望做好准备，以迎接采矿业的未来结构--主导该行业的将是发展中世界的国有企业。"

Alex Gorbansky, managing director at Frontier Strategy Group, a political risk consultancy, says Rio's bid for Alcan is a sign that the big western miners are nervous. "This is all about companies positioning themselves for the future structure of the mining industry, which will be dominated by state-owned companies from the developing world."

今年，在对加拿大镍矿商LionOre控制权的争夺中，俄罗斯矿业集团Norilsk Nickel击败了英国上市企业斯特拉塔，证明了自己日益增长的实力。俄罗斯铝业收购本国规模较小的竞争对手Sual，成为全球最大铝生产商，这是使加拿大铝业和美国铝业成为潜在收购对象的一大因素。加拿大铝业和美国铝业曾是该行业规模最大的企业。

This year Norilsk Nickel demonstrated its growing strength when it beat UK-listed Xstrata in the battle to control LionOre, the Canadian nickel miner. Rusal's takeover of smaller Russian rival Sual to become the largest aluminium producer in the world was a major factor in making Alcan and Alcoa, formerly¹⁷ the biggest players, look vulnerable to takeover.

矿业分析师菲奥娜o佩罗特-汉弗莱(Fiona Perrott-Humphrey)表示，西方大型矿业企业正意识到所在行业的新格局，不像以往那么自满了。"大型企业最终意识到，情况已经发生了改变。首先，这并非一个正常的周期。其次，外来者和竞争对手正争夺该行业的资产，它们未必持有相同的周期观点。这些竞争对手突然具备了收购矿业资产的能力，而且充满自信。"

Mining analyst¹¹ Fiona Perrott-Humphrey says that the big western mining companies are waking up to the new dynamics¹⁸ of their industry and being less complacent¹⁹. "The big guys have finally realised that the landscape has changed. Firstly, this is not a normal cycle. And secondly²⁰, there are interlopers and competitors for assets out there that don't have the same view of cycles. These competitors are suddenly empowered and confident about buying mining assets."

佩罗特-汉弗莱表示，因此，力拓等企业准备在交易实施方面更为大胆。力拓竞购加拿大铝业，将引发采矿业出现数宗其它收购交易。相互竞争的首席执行官们将在未来几个月对自己的地位进行反思。"不能低估该交易对全球各地企业董事会的影响。"

Companies such as Rio Tinto are therefore prepared to be more aggressive in doing deals, Ms Perrott-Humphrey says. Rio's bid for Alcan should trigger several other bids in the mining industry, as rival chief executives will be re-assessing their positions in the coming months. "It can't be underestimated the ripples²¹ it will have in boardrooms around the world."

西方矿业企业与新兴市场生产商之间的竞争越来越激烈，反映出高质量矿业资产日益稀缺。现有的矿正趋于枯竭，而过去十年几乎没有发现什么新的大型矿区。

The growing competition between western mining companies and emerging market producers reflects the fact that high-quality mining assets are increasingly scarce. Established mines are reaching the end of their lives and few new major mineral discoveries have been made in the last decade.

90年代末上一次大宗商品价格低迷时期，大型矿业企业削减勘探预算，数百家小型勘探商破产。如今该行业开始重新投资，但要找到新的矿藏需要数年，而使其投产可能要花十年以上，因此，此前削减勘探预算造成的影响依然存在。

During the last downturn in commodities prices, in the late 1990s, large mining companies slashed²² exploration budgets and hundreds of smaller explorers went bust. The industry is now investing again but it takes years to find new deposits and sometimes more than a decade to bring them into production, so the effects of the previous cutbacks are still being felt.

尽管大型矿商正在推进的有机增长项目颇多，但要发挥这些项目的潜能仍需要时间。收购现有的矿藏，则能使企业立即利用价格高企的大好时机。

Although the large miners have impressive pipelines²³ of organic growth projects, these will take time to fulfil their potential. Buying existing mines enables companies to cash in on high prices immediately.

但待售的资产越来越少。全球许多开采中的矿由国有企业或家族企业控制，这使大型上市矿业集团在收购时面临的选择更少了。一位伦敦矿业分析师表示："可以收购的大型一流资产很有限，用一只手就能数清。"

But the number of assets up for sale are dwindling²⁴. Many of the mines in production around the world are controlled by state- or family-owned companies, giving the big listed mining groups less choice in what they can acquire. "The number of world-class, large-scale assets that can be bought are finite, you could count them on the fingers of one hand," said one London-based mining analyst.

这意味着收购高品质资产的价格将会很高，力拓对加拿大铝业的高昂收购报价，可能会变得更加常见。Frontier Strategy Group的戈尔巴斯基表示，矿业企业高管们别无选择。"这些企业的收购价格看上去的确很高。然而，企业增长乏力的风险和成本同样巨大。你要么为企业成长而溢价收购，要么成为被收购的目标。"

This means the price of securing quality assets will be high, and the kind of lofty price tag seen in Rio's bid for Alcan could become more commonplace. Mr Gorbansky at Frontier Strategy Group says mining executives have no alternative. "Companies do look expensive. However, the risk and cost of not being able to grow your business, which is the alternative, is cataclysmic. You either pay a premium to grow, or you become a target."