剑桥大学(Cambridge university)的研究人员日前警告，一场全球银行业危机引发的紧张和焦虑，可能导致成千上万人死于心脏病发作。

A global banking¹ crisis would kill tens of thousands of people through heart attacks brought on by stress and anxiety, Cambridge university researchers warn today.

社会流行病学家戴维?斯图克勒(David Stuckler)和他的同事表示，他们进行的这项研究首次将银行危机与人口死亡率联系起来。在对世界银行(World Bank)和世界卫生组织(World Health Organisation²)长达40年的数据进行统计分析后，他们的结论是，一场“系统性”危机会使富裕国家的心脏病死亡率平均提高6.4%——发展中国家的数值更高。

David Stuckler and colleagues have carried out what they say is the first study relating banking crises to mortality. Their statistical³ analysis of 40 years’ data from the World Bank and World Health Organisation concludes that a “system-wide” crisis increases deaths from heart disease by an average 6.4 per cent in wealthy countries – and more in developing countries.

这些剑桥的研究人员称，在英国，如果“大部分银行”遭遇与北岩银行(Northern Rock)类似的危机，可能导致1300至5100人死亡。他们走访了去年9月在北岩银行门口排队取钱的人，结果发现，这些人情绪之紧张赶上了遭遇地震、战争甚至是恐怖袭击时的情形。

The Cambridge researchers say that in Britain between 1,300 and 5,100 people could die if “a significant proportion of banks” suffered crises similar to that at Northern Rock. Interviews with people queueing to take their money out of Northern Rock last September showed they suffered stress similar to that experienced in earthquakes, wars or even terrorist incidents.

“我们的研究表明，金融危机不只是钱的问题——它们也会影响人们的健康，”斯图克勒博士表示。“这份报告显示，抑制歇斯底里、防范大范围恐慌很重要，这不仅有利于防止导致系统性银行危机的事件，也有利于防止成千上万人死于心脏病。”

“Our findings show that financial crises aren’t just about money – they also impact on people’s health,” said Dr Stuckler, a social epidemiologist. “This report shows that containing hysteria and preventing widespread panic is important not only to stop these incidents leading to a systemic bank crisis but also to prevent potentially thousands of heart disease deaths.”

英国心脏病基金会(British Heart Foundation)的心脏科护士琼?戴维森(June Davison)在评论剑桥大学的研究时表示：“人们很早就发现，情绪极其紧张可能使患有冠心病的人心脏病发作。但我们依然需要进一步了解其中的机理。”

Commenting on the Cambridge study, June Davison, cardiac nurse at the British Heart Foundation, said: “Intense emotional stress has long been associated with triggering heart attacks in those people with existing coronary heart disease. However, we still need to further understand the mechanisms⁴ of how this may happen.”

世界银行的数据库包括117个系统性银行危机，即一国相当大一部分银行出现破产或资不抵债的时期。在这些危机中，有5个发生在高收入经合组织(OECD)国家——1977年在西班牙、1987年挪威、1991年芬兰、瑞典和日本，但绝大多数危机发生在发展中世界。

The World Bank database includes 117 systemic bank crises, defined as episodes in which a significant proportion of a country’s banks fail or their assets are exhausted⁵. Five of these affected⁶ high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries – Spain in 1977, Norway in 1987 and Finland, Sweden and Japan in 1991 – but the vast majority were in the developing world.

研究人员将银行危机与世界卫生组织全球死亡率数据库(WHO Global Mortality Database)中的男性心脏病死亡率数据进行了关联。他们的统计模型试图校正潜在的“混淆性变量”，例如，无论是否存在银行业危机，经济衰退和金融不确定性都可能导致死亡率上升。 The researchers related the banking crises to male cardiovascular death rates from the WHO Global Mortality Database. Their statistical models attempted to correct for potential “confounding variables”, such as the fact that an economic downturn and financial uncertainty⁷ may increase mortality rates regardless of whether there is a banking crisis.

结果显示，每次发生系统性银行危机，心脏病死亡率都会短暂上升。斯图克勒博士称，这一迹象在发展中国家更为明显，或许是因为那里的人更加担心，一旦银行倒闭，他们将一无所有。相比之下，富裕国家拥有更为强大的金融和健康安全网络。 The results show a brief surge in cardiac deaths every time there is a systemic bank failure. The effect is more pronounced in developing countries, said Dr Stuckler – perhaps because people there feel more concerned about losing everything if banks fail than their counterparts in wealthy countries where there is a stronger financial and health safety net.

剑桥大学的研究报告发表在《全球化和健康》(Globalisation and Health)杂志上。

The Cambridge report is published in the journal Globalisation and Health