2008年3月11日 解读中国贸易数据
文章来源: 文章作者: 发布时间:2008-03-18 06:04 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
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2月份中国贸易顺差从1月份的195亿美元收窄至86亿美元。中国的出口同比增长幅度从1月份的26.6%,大幅降至6.5%,而由于大宗商品价格飙升,进口同比增幅为35.1%(1月份为27.5%)。

China's trade surplus narrowed to $8.6bn in February from $19.5bn in January. The country’s export growth plunged1 to 6.5% YoY from 26.6% in January, while imports grew 35.1% YoY (from 27.5% in January) as commodity prices surged.

我们预计到了2008年中国出口增长将放缓,但我们认为,2月份中国出口增长之所以大幅下降,很大程度上是受两个主要一次性因素的驱动:

We have anticipated a slowdown in China’s export growth in 2008, but believe the severity of the slump2 in February was largely driven by two major one-off factors:

1. 2007年2月份中国出口同比增长52%,原因是外界广泛预期中国将削减增值税出口退税,中国出口商争相赶在此前出口。这实际上为计算2008年2月份出口增幅设定了一个较高的基数。

1. Export growth surged by 52% YoY in February 2007 as Chinese exporters rushed to beat widely anticipated cutes to VAT3 rebates4. This in effect created a high base, from which the February 2008 growth rate was calculated.

2. 今年头几个月的冬季暴雪导致大面积供电及交通运输中断,影响到了生产和出口水平。

2. Severe winter storms in opening months of the year have led to widespread power and transportation disruptions, which affected5 production and export levels.

我们预计3月份的出口数据将有所反弹,但我们仍预计,由于经合组织(OECD)成员经济体的放缓(它们占中国出口的三分之二),今年中国出口增长的放缓程度将更为温和。

We expect the export figures to rebound6 in March, but continue to anticipate a more moderate slowdown in export growth over the course of the year in response to the slowdown in the OECD economies (which take up two-thirds of China’s exports).

尽管新兴市场对中国出口的需求仍然强劲,但我们认为,这无法完全抵消发达市场需求下降的影响。

While the demand for Chinese exports from emerging markets remains7 buoyant, we do not believe this will fully8 offset9 the moderation in developed markets.

中国出口领域的放缓,将成为2008年中国经济增长的关键风险之一。2007年中国出口总额占总体经济的36%,而贸易顺差约占中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长的五分之一。

A slowdown in China’s export sector10 constitutes one of the key risks to economic growth in 2008. Total exports accounted for 36% of the overall economy in 2007, while the trade surplus accounts for about a fifth of China’s GDP growth.

与此同时,不断飙升的大宗商品价格持续推高进口额——2月份进口增速连续第5个月快于出口增速。此外,中国2月份的生产者价格指数较上年同期增长6.6%——为2004年12月份以来的最快增速。这再次反映出一系列大宗商品和基本生产资料的成本压力不断上升。

Meanwhile, soaring commodity prices continue to boost the value of imports - February marks the fifth month in a row that imports have grown faster than exports. Separately, China’s producer prices gained 6.6% in February from a year earlier - the fastest rate since December 2004. This again reflects rising cost pressures for a range of commodities and basic inputs11.

中国日益扩大的贸易顺差一直是流动性过剩的主要原因。不过,2008年中国贸易顺差的增长料将有所缓和——这不仅是受海外需求走软的影响,还受人民币不断升值的影响。人民币不断升值导致出口价格上涨,但使得中国的海外购买力增强。这一趋势将有利于中国抑制流动性过剩的努力。

China’s widening trade surplus has been a major source of excess liquidity12. However, growth in the trade surplus is expected to ease in 2008 - impacted not only by weaker overseas demand, but also by the effect of a strengthening yuan, which makes exports more expensive but gives China more buying power abroad. This trend will be beneficial to China’s efforts to curb13 excess liquidity.

 



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1 plunged 06a599a54b33c9d941718dccc7739582     
v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 );暴跌;骤降;突降
参考例句:
  • The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
  • She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳,从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。
2 slump 4E8zU     
n.暴跌,意气消沉,(土地)下沉;vi.猛然掉落,坍塌,大幅度下跌
参考例句:
  • She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
  • Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。
3 vat sKszW     
n.(=value added tax)增值税,大桶
参考例句:
  • The office is asking for the vat papers.办事处要有关增值税的文件。
  • His father emptied sacks of stale rye bread into the vat.他父亲把一袋袋发霉的黑面包倒进大桶里。
4 rebates 5862cab7436152bb9726585397fb1db9     
n.退还款( rebate的名词复数 );回扣;返还(退还的部份货价);折扣
参考例句:
  • The VAT system offers advantages, such as rebates on exports. 增值税有其优点,如对出口商品实行回扣。 来自辞典例句
  • In more recent years rate rebates have been introduced for households. 近年地方税的减免已适用于家庭。 来自辞典例句
5 affected TzUzg0     
adj.不自然的,假装的
参考例句:
  • She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
  • His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。
6 rebound YAtz1     
v.弹回;n.弹回,跳回
参考例句:
  • The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
  • Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。
7 remains 1kMzTy     
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹
参考例句:
  • He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
  • The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。
8 fully Gfuzd     
adv.完全地,全部地,彻底地;充分地
参考例句:
  • The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气,然后全部呼出。
  • They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。
9 offset mIZx8     
n.分支,补偿;v.抵消,补偿
参考例句:
  • Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
  • He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。
10 sector yjczYn     
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形
参考例句:
  • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
  • The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。
11 inputs a8aff967e1649a1c82ea607c881e8091     
n.输入( input的名词复数 );投入;输入端;输入的数据v.把…输入电脑( input的第三人称单数 )
参考例句:
  • Uncheck the inputs checked for optimization in the previous stage. 不测试那些已经测试过的优化了的以前步骤的inputs.(变量参数)。 来自互联网
  • Just in case, save in a file the inputs obtained at the previous stage. 以防万一,保存以前步骤获得的inputs(变量参数值)到一个文件中去。 来自互联网
12 liquidity VRXzb     
n.流动性,偿债能力,流动资产
参考例句:
  • The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
  • The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。
13 curb LmRyy     
n.场外证券市场,场外交易;vt.制止,抑制
参考例句:
  • I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
  • You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。
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