高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师阿尔琼?穆尔蒂(Arjun Murti)预测，未来两年中，原油价格可能飙升至每桶200美元。穆尔蒂3年前曾准确预测到油价将出现“超级涨升”，升至每桶100美元以上。

Crude oil prices could surge to $200 a barrel in the next two years, according to the Goldman Sachs’ analyst¹ who three years ago correctly predicted a price “super-spike” above $100 a barrel.

穆尔蒂发出上述警告之际，油价创下了每桶122美元以上的新高。推高油价的因素包括尼日利亚供应中断、俄罗斯产量下降以及在奥运之前中国需求持续强劲。

The warning by Arjun Murti came as oil prices hit a fresh record high above $122 a barrel, boosted by supply disruptions in Nigeria, lower output in Russia and continued robust² demand in China ahead of the Olympics.

穆尔蒂表示，鉴于供应增长不足已十分明显，可能爆发能源危机。

Mr Murti said the energy crisis could be coming to a head as a lack of adequate supply growth was becoming apparent.

他补充称：“在未来6至24个月中，油价升至每桶150美元至200美元的可能性似乎越来越大。”他同时警告，石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称：欧佩克)用于缓冲意外供应问题的闲置产能很低。

“The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next 6-24 months,” he added, warning also that the spare capacity of the Organisation³ of the Petroleum⁴ Exporting Countries to cushion against unexpected supply shocks was very low.

上月，欧佩克主席沙基卜?克利勒(Chakib Khelil)也警告称，油价可能升至每桶200美元。自今年初以来，押注油价在12月份触及每桶200美元的原油期权合约增长了两倍。 Last month, Chakib Khelil, president of Opec, also warned oil could reach $200 a barrel. The number of oil option contracts betting on oil hitting $200 a barrel in December have tripled since the beginning of the year.

自2005年3月作出准确的预测后，穆尔蒂的警告在石油市场中变得举足轻重。当时油价为每桶55美元左右，而他警告称油价将出现“超级涨升”至每桶105美元。

Mr Murti’s warnings carry weight in the oil market, after he correctly predicted in March 2005, when oil traded at about $55 a barrel, that prices could suffer a “super-spike” to $105 a barrel.

外界批评他2005年发出的警告是“自私自利”，因为高盛是从事石油交易的大型华尔街投资银行之一，能够从油价上涨中获利。

The warning in 2005 was criticised as “self-serving” because Goldman Sachs is one of the largest Wall Street investment banks trading oil and it could profit from an increase in prices.

这些批评促使高盛时任首席执行官亨利?保尔森(Henry Paulson)为这份看涨报告出言辩护。目前保尔森担任美国财政部长。

The criticism forced the bank’s chief executive at that time – Henry Paulson – to defend the bullish report. Mr Paulson is now US Treasury⁵ secretary.

麦格理(Macquarie)驻纽约的诺曼?巴拉卡特(Nauman Barakat)表示：“不应立刻就说这份报告是荒谬的，因为高盛当初的“超级涨升”说法一点没错。”

Nauman Barakat of Macquarie in New York said: “The report should not be dismissed out of hand as preposterous⁶, as Goldman hit it on the head with its original super-spike story.”