气候变化模型未充分考虑物种灭绝
文章来源:未知 文章作者:enread 发布时间:2012-01-05 06:09 字体: [ ]  进入论坛
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Predictions of the loss of animal and plant diversity around the world are common under models of future climate change. But a new study shows that because these climate models don't account for species competition and movement, they could grossly(很,非常) underestimate future extinctions. "We have really sophisticated meteorological models for predicting climate change," says ecologist Mark Urban, the study's lead author. "But in real life, animals move around, they compete, they parasitize each other, and they eat each other. The majority of our predictions don't include these important interactions."

Plenty of experimental studies have shown that species are already moving in response to climate change, says Urban, assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary1 biology at the University of Connecticut. For example, as temperatures rise over time, animals and plants that can't take the heat are moving to higher altitudes where temperatures are cooler.

But not all species can disperse2(分散,传播) fast enough to get to these more suitable places before they die off, Urban says. And if they do make it to these better habitats, they may be out-competed by the species that are already there -- or the ones that got there first.

With coauthors Josh Tewksbury and Kimberly Sheldon of the University of Washington, Urban created a mathematical model that takes into account the varying rates of migration3 and the different intensities4 of competition seen in ecological5 communities. The goal was to predict just how successful species within these communities would be at shifting to completely new habitats.

Their results showed that animals and plants that can adjust to climate change will have a competitive advantage over those that don't.

Animals with small geographic6 ranges, specific habitat needs and difficulty dispersing7 are likely to go extinct under climate change, their model shows. Further, these animals are more likely to be overrun by other species that can tolerate a wider range of habitats.

"When a species has a small range, it's more likely to be out-competed by others," Urban says. "It's not about how fast you can move, but how fast you move relative to your competitors."



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1 evolutionary Ctqz7m     
adj.进化的;演化的,演变的;[生]进化论的
参考例句:
  • Life has its own evolutionary process.生命有其自身的进化过程。
  • These are fascinating questions to be resolved by the evolutionary studies of plants.这些十分吸引人的问题将在研究植物进化过程中得以解决。
2 disperse ulxzL     
vi.使分散;使消失;vt.分散;驱散
参考例句:
  • The cattle were swinging their tails to disperse the flies.那些牛甩动着尾巴驱赶苍蝇。
  • The children disperse for the holidays.孩子们放假了。
3 migration mDpxj     
n.迁移,移居,(鸟类等的)迁徙
参考例句:
  • Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
  • He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。
4 intensities 6932348967a63a2a372931f9320087f3     
n.强烈( intensity的名词复数 );(感情的)强烈程度;强度;烈度
参考例句:
  • At very high intensities, nuclear radiations cause itching and tingling of the skin. 当核辐射强度很高时,它能使皮肤感到发痒和刺痛。 来自辞典例句
  • They ask again and again in a variety of ways and intensities. 他们会以不同的方式和强度来不停地问,直到他得到自己想要的答案为止。 来自互联网
5 ecological IrRxX     
adj.生态的,生态学的
参考例句:
  • The region has been declared an ecological disaster zone.这个地区已经宣布为生态灾难区。
  • Each animal has its ecological niche.每种动物都有自己的生态位.
6 geographic tgsxb     
adj.地理学的,地理的
参考例句:
  • The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
7 dispersing dispersing     
adj. 分散的 动词disperse的现在分词形式
参考例句:
  • Whereas gasoline fumes linger close to the ground before dispersing. 而汽油烟气却靠近地面迟迟不散。
  • Earthworms may be instrumental in dispersing fungi or bacteria. 蚯蚓可能是散布真菌及细菌的工具。
TAG标签: species climate model
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