The anticipated melting of the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be slowed by two big factors that are largely overlooked in current computer models, according to a new study. The findings, published online in Nature Communications, suggest that the impact on global sea levels from the retreating ice sheet could be less drastic - or at least more gradual -- than recent computer simulations have indicated.

 

Over the past year, numerous studies have warned that parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are on the verge¹ of a runaway² retreat. Just last week a high-profile research paper forecast that this could lead eventually to a rise in global sea levels of as much as three metres.

 

The authors of the new Nature Communications paper, however, focus on two geophysical elements that they say aren't adequately reflected in computer simulations for this region: the surprisingly powerful gravitational pull of the immense ice sheet on surrounding water, and the unusually fluid nature of the mantle³ beneath the bedrock that the ice sits on. 

 

"The fate of the polar ice sheets in a warming world is a major concern for policy makers⁴ -- and attention is rightly focused on the importance of restraining CO2 emissions⁵ and preparing for rising sea levels," says lead author Natalya Gomez, an assistant professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences at McGill University in Montreal. "But our study shows that for Antarctica, in particular, computer models also need to take into account how gravitational effects and variations in Earth structure could affect the pace of future ice-sheet loss."

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