它是一只鸟吗？还是一架飞机？不，它不过是又一家进行首次公开发行的中国公司--这一回，"高高在上"的是中国最大的保险公司中国人寿(China Life)。本周二，该公司A股在国内市场首日上市交易，其收盘价比发行价高出一倍以上。

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's just another Chinese initial public offering - in this case, the mainland's biggest insurer. Its A-shares more than doubled following Tuesday's debut¹ on the domestic-currency market.

由于上述天价，目前中国人寿市值已达到逾1280亿美元，超过了多数知名同业公司，如荷兰国际集团荷兰保险(ING)、德国的安联保险(Allianz)等。中国人寿的估值也非常之高：其A股价格接近分析师对其2007年盈利普遍预期的70倍。相比于全球同行，中国人寿或许有着更为出色的成长前景。但寿险保费收入的增速正在下降，按照中国大陆的会计标准，2006年增速已降至10%左右。与此同时，其它投资方式可能也会与之争夺储户的资金：涌入共同基金行业的1000多亿美元资金，便是一个例证。

As a result of that stratospheric rise, China Life now boasts a market capitalisation of more than $128bn - bigger than most of its better-known peers, such as the Netherlands' ING and Allianz of Germany. It is also much more expensive: the A-shares trade at nearly 70 times consensus² 2007 earnings³. China Life may have superior growth prospects⁴ when compared with its global peers. But life assurance premium⁵ growth is decelerating - to around 10 per cent in 2006 under mainland accounting⁶ standards. Meanwhile, alternative investment mechanisms⁷ may become a rival destination for savers: the $100bn-plus already in mutual⁸ funds being a case in point.


但最令人侧目的数字，却是新上市的中国人寿A股股价较其香港上市的H股溢价50%。在中国大陆和香港两地上市的股票是不可互换的，因为人民币不能完全自由兑换，A股股价历来高于H股，部分反映出大陆市场较低的流动性。

The most telling number, however, is the 50 per cent premium China's Life's newly-minted Chinese shares command compared with its Hong Kong-listed stock. Dual-listed shares in China and Hong Kong are not fungible - the renminbi is not fully⁹ convertible¹⁰ - and mainland shares have traditionally traded higher, partly reflecting more shallow liquidity¹¹.

企业上市活动使中国的金融服务业从中获益：中国最大的上市券商中信证券(Citic Securities)，2006年的盈利增幅超过了450%。但这并非完全是中国股市改革的结果--实际上，这一改革比监管机构所认为的要温和得多。对于大陆股市能否持续走强，中国政府的货币政策中给出了更好的暗示：今年政府已上调银行准备金比率，而且从有关官员的言论来看，将进一步紧缩货币政策。看样子，高高在上的既不是鸟，也不是飞机，但确实越来越像是一个泡沫了。

Flotations are benefiting China's financial services industry - Citic Securities, the biggest listed brokerage, saw 2006 profit leap five-fold. But that is not simply testament¹² to stock market reforms, which were far milder in practice than regulators suggested. A better clue to the sustainability of the mainland's market is afforded by Beijing's monetary¹³ policy: the government has already raised bank reserve ratios this year, and rhetoric¹⁴ points to further tightening¹⁵. It's not a bird, or a plane, but does look increasingly like a bubble