人们担心美国目前的经济低迷可能演变成上世纪90年代日本遭受的那种旷日持久的经济衰退，这种担忧正不断加剧，促使决策者和投资者考虑：是否可能需要采取越来越激进的措施以避免这种后果？

Fear is mounting that the economic downturn in the US could turn into a deep and protracted¹ recession of the kind that plagued Japan in the early 1990s, driving policymakers and investors² to consider whether increasingly radical³ measures may be needed to avert⁴ such an outcome.

这种争论已经取代了先前有关美国经济是否陷入衰退的争辩。在2月份发布糟糕的就业报告和表明实际消费支出停滞的数据后，目前多数经济学家认为，美国经济已陷入衰退。

This debate has superseded⁵ the old argument as to whether the US is in recession or not. Most economists⁷ now believe it is, following February’s grim jobs report and evidence of stagnation⁸ in real consumer spending.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席美国经济学家理查德?伯纳(Richard Berner)表示：“经济方面的争论正转向衰退的程度和持续时间。”

“The economic debate is shifting to how deep and long it will be,” said Richard Berner, chief US economist⁶ at Morgan Stanley.

直到最近，主流看法一直是：任何衰退将会是温和的，因为房地产以外的企业领域未出现失衡。美国以外地区的经济增长较为强劲，而美联储(Federal Reserve)的降息举措和1680亿美元的财政刺激方案正起到推动作用。

Until recently the mainstream⁹ view was that any recession would be mild, due to the lack of imbalances in the corporate¹⁰ sector¹¹ outside housing. Growth outside the US was strong and there was a boost on the way from Federal Reserve rate cuts and the $168bn fiscal¹² stimulus¹³.

但随着劳动力市场开始出现问题、房价跌幅加大、金融市场状况进一步恶化，直至美联储最近的流动性行动，一种较为悲观的观点已取代了原有观点。经济学家们担心消费者过度消费，可能会开始紧缩开支。

But a darker view has taken hold as the labour market started to crack, house price declines have intensified¹⁴ and financial markets deteriorated¹⁵ further until the Fed’s latest liquidity¹⁶ operation. Economists worry that consumers are overextended and could start pulling back.

人们越来越意识到，仅凭货币政策可能不足以抑制发生一场严重衰退的风险，原因是较大的风险价差和通胀造成的限制。

There is growing awareness¹⁷ that monetary¹⁸ policy alone may not be able to curb¹⁹ the risk of a severe recession, because of wide risk spreads and constraints²⁰ imposed by inflation.

国际清算银行(BIS)首席经济学家威廉?怀特(William White)表示：“与战后任何时候相比，决策者们目前面临的困难（同时保持实际增长、价格稳定和金融稳定）看起来同样巨大——如果说不是更大的话。” “The difficulties now facing policymakers – to maintain simultaneously²¹ real growth, price stability and financial stability – seem as great today, if not greater, than at any other time in the post-War period,” said William White, chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements.

一些分析师预计将出现“双底”的衰退，经济增长在财政刺激方案的短期提振后，在年中前后将再度减弱。

Some analysts²² expect a double-dip recession, with growth fading again after a short-lived boost from the fiscal stimulus around midyear.

这种悲观看法在金融市场中得到了反映，5年期通货膨胀保值债券(Treasury²³ inflation-protected securities)的收益率略为负值——这表明投资者认为，5年内美联储将无法维持平均实际利率为正值。

This bleak²⁴ view is reflected in financial markets, where the return on five-year Treasury inflation-protected securities is slightly negative – suggesting that investors believe the Fed will not be able to run positive real interest rates on average for five years.