人民币这个全球“替罪羊”货币正在不断升值。2005年7月，中国将人民币汇率重新定在8.11元人民币兑1美元，如今，它距离7元大关已只有咫尺之遥。今年以来，人民币兑美元汇率升值近4%，2007年全年的升幅也有7%。中国政府是否打算放宽其反对人民币升值的传统立场呢？

The world’s favourite scapegoat¹ currency is in the ascendant. China’s renminbi, which was re-valued at Rmb8.11/$1 in July 2005, is now within a whisker of Rmb7/$1. It has strengthened by some 4 per cent against the dollar so far this year, following a 7 per cent appreciation² in the whole of 2007. Is Beijing relaxing its traditional opposition³ to a stronger currency?

并不完全是。以其它几乎所有主要货币衡量，人民币的表现似乎都相当疲弱。今年以来，与中国最大贸易伙伴的货币——欧元相比，人民币已贬值3%；人民币对日元的贬值幅度也达到4.4%。JP摩根(JP Morgan)的数据显示，按贸易加权水平衡量，人民币今年以来的升值幅度仅有0.5%。当然，人民币也许还会继续升值，特别是如果当地媒体的报道可以信赖的话。远期市场肯定也是这么预期的：人民币不可交割远期合约价格显示，市场预计人民币兑美元汇率今年将升值11.3%。

Not entirely⁴. Measured against nearly any other currency you care to mention, renminbi performance looks feeble. So far this year it has depreciated⁵ by 3 per cent against the euro, the currency of China’s biggest trading partner, and 4.4 per cent versus⁶ the yen⁷. On a trade-weighted basis, it has gained a mere⁸ 0.5 per cent, according to JP Morgan. Of course, there may be further catch-up to come, particularly if reports in local media are to be believed. Forward markets certainly expect as much: non-deliverable forwards imply appreciation of 11.3 per cent against the dollar this year.

这种信念的主要依据是中国通胀率的再次飙升，但它没有抓住一个关键点——中国2月份消费者价格指数较上年同期上涨8.7%的主要原因，是食品价格的不断上升。由于中国在食品方面的自给自足，人民币的升值将很难缓解这种局面。食品进口可能会增加，但不会达到足以影响货币政策的程度。

But this belief, predicated in large part upon China’s resurgent inflation, misses a key point. Consumer prices rose 8.7 per cent on a year-on-year basis in February largely due to rising food prices. A stronger currency would do little to mitigate⁹ this as China is largely self-sufficient in food. Food imports could rise, but not to the extent of shaping monetary¹⁰ policy.

要洞察货币升值的负面影响更不容易。今年头几个月，中国的出口增长有所放缓，但这既可能反映了人民币升值的影响，也可能反映的是中国取消出口退税、异常严重的冬季暴风雪及美国经济低迷的影响。考虑到这些因素，以及货币升值的有限益处，押注人民币的再次大幅升值，将是一种冒失的做法。

Discerning the negative impact of currency appreciation is trickier¹¹. Export growth slowed in the first couple of months of this year, but that is as likely to reflect the scrapping¹² of export tax rebates¹³, freak snowstorms and the US slowdown as a stronger renminbi. Given these other factors, and the limited usefulness of a higher currency, it would be bold to bet on another big revaluation.