"It's the Economy, Stupid."
That's a famous Carville dictum (from Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign). It could sum up
Trump1's chances, too, given the well-documented
stagnation2 of America's middle class and the possibility of another economic slowdown.
Republican Weakness
Some Republicans and conservative
commentators3 are warning Republicans that they face a "Joe McCarthy Moment," in which they must
repudiate4 Trump or risk the
wrath5 of history's
judgment6.
But GOP leaders such as Chairman Reince Priebus are more interested in
immediate7 peace than their place in history, and
amenable8 characters such as former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman have said that nominating Trump is no big deal.
Journalistic Weakness
It comes in two flavors. One is false equivalence. Reporters have yet to
fully9 examine Trump's record, especially the details of his business dealings and personal life, but soon enough his story will be
yoked10 with and compared to Clinton's, which will make it easier for Trump to slide by in the resulting
din11.
The second flavor is the media's hunger for an audience. The closer Trump gets to the White House, the more frightening he becomes, the more desperate his enemies become - the more eyeballs are focused on smartphones and TV sets.
That means more billions in "free" media for Trump.
As much as Clinton talks about new ideas and a fresh start, she will be attempting the difficult task of holding the White House for the same party for a third-straight term. That last happened in 1988.
More important, Clinton and her husband represent a force in the Democratic Party that is a kind of
incumbency13 within an incumbency, and that is a
perilous14 place to be at a time when voters so despise Washington.
The Numbers
Shockingly - given his
outrageous15, race-baiting and even violence-tinged
rhetoric16 - Trump is not that far behind in the horse race as the "fall" campaign informally begins.
With the possible exception of Arizona, there are few, if any, red states that he would likely lose. There are also at least five large blue states in which he could compete. Together, they represent more than enough electoral votes to send Trump to the White House.
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