89.        This advertisement for "How to Write a Screenplay..." concludes that a writer is
more likely to be successful by writing original screenplays than by writing books. The
ad's reasoning is based on two claims: (1) the average film tends to be more profitable
than even best-selling books, and (2) film producers are more likely to make movies
based on original screenplays than on books because in recent years the films that have
sold the most tickets have usually been based on original screenplays. I find the ad
unconvincing, on three grounds.
      First, the mere¹ fact that ticket sales in recent years for screenplay-based movies
have exceeded those for book-based movies is insufficient² evidence to conclude that
writing screenplays now provides greater financial opportunity for writers. Ticket-sale
statistics from only a few recent years are not necessarily a good indicator³ of future
trends. It is possible that fees paid by movie studios for screenplays might decrease in
the future relative to those for book rights. Moreover. the argument is based on number
of ticket sales, not on movie-studio profits or writer's Sees. It is possible that studio
profits and writer fees have actually been greater recently for book-based movies than
for those based on original screenplays.
      Another problem with the ad is that it assumes a writer must make an either-or
choice from the outset between writing books and writing screenplays. The argument
fails to rule out the possibility that a writer engage in both types of writing as well as
other types. In fact. a writer may be more successful by doing so. Writing in various
genres⁴ might improve one's effectiveness in each of them. Also, writing a book may be
an effective first step to producing a screenplay. In any event, the ad provides no
justification⁵ for the mutually exclusive choice it imposes on the writer.
      A third problem with the ad is its ambiguous use of the word "successful." The
argument simply equates⁶ success with movie ticket sales. However, many writers may
define writing success in other terms, such as intellectual or artistic⁷ fulfillment. The ad's
advice that writing screenplays is the best way to achieve writing success ignores other
definitions of success.
      In conclusion, this quick pitch for a book is based on simplistic assumptions about
ticket sales and writer fees, and on an overly narrow definition of success in writing. To
better evaluate this argument, at the very least we would need to know the number of
years the cited statistic was based on, and the extent to which ticket sales reflect movie
studio profits and writer fees

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