If the trend of increase in cocaine¹ abuse has been slowed down, or if  the total  amount  of  illegal drugs  in the market  has been significantly reduced, even though the absolute use of cocaine is still increasing, we would say that the government efforts in apprehending² drug traffickers are somehow effective.

    In conclusion, the arguer oversimplifies the cause-and-effect relationship between government's increased efforts and the observed increase in the illegal use of cocaine. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that the government's enforcement efforts have directly led to the increased supply and use of cocaine. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the trend of increase in the use of cocaine and other drugs before and after the government's actions.

六、Argument典型逻辑错误

1. 调查类逻辑错误

抽样的程序是否具有随机性

样品是否足够大

Example 1:

    The following appeared as part of an article in a trade magazine for breweries³.

    “Magic Hat Brewery⁵ recently released the results of a survey of visitors to its tasting room last year. Magic Hat reports that the majority of visitors asked to taste its low-calorie beers. To boost sales, other small breweries should brew⁴ low-calorie beers as well.”

Example 2:

     The following appeared in a memorandum⁶ from a member of a financial management and consulting firm.

   “We have learned from an employee of Witful Ltd. that is accounting⁷ department by checking about 10% of the last month purchasing invoices⁸ for errors any inconsistencies saved the company some $10,000 in over-payments. In order to help our clients increase the net gains, we should advise each of them to institute a policy of checking all purchasing invoices for errors. Such recommendation could also help us get the Witful account by demonstrating to Witful the regressness of our methods."

A. The source of the news is not dependable.

B. The sample cannot reflect the general condition.