In conclusion, I am somewhat persuaded by this author's line of reasoning. The argument would be strengthened if the author were to consider and rule out other significant factors that might have caused the increase in visits to the local art museum.

4.  In response to a coincidence between calling revenues and delays in manufacturing, the report recommends replacing the manager of the purchasing department. The grounds for this action are twofold. First, the delays are traced to poor planning in purchasing metals. Second, the purchasing manager's lack of knowledge of the properties of metals is thought to be the cause of the poor planning. It is further recommended that the position of the purchasing manager be filled by a scientist from the research division and that the current purchasing manager be reassigned to the sales department. In support of this latter recommendation, the report states that the current purchasing manager's background in general business, psychology¹, and sociology equip him for this new assignment. The recommendations advanced in the report are questionable² for two reasons.

      To begin with, the report fails to establish a causal connection between the falling revenues of the company and the delays in manufacturing. The mere³ fact that falling revenues coincide with delays in manufacturing is insufficient⁴ to conclude that the delays caused the decline in revenue. Without compelling evidence to support the causal connection between these two events, the report's recommendations are not worthy⁵ of consideration.

      Second, a central assumption of the report is that knowledge of the properties of metals is necessary for planning in purchasing metals. No evidence is stated in the report to support this crucial assumption. Moreover, it is not obvious that such knowledge would be required to perform this task. Since planning is essentially⁶ a logistical function, it is doubtful that in-depth knowledge of the properties of metals would be helpful in accomplishing this task.

      In conclusion, this is a weak argument. To strengthen the recommendation that the manager of the purchasing department be replaced, the author would have to demonstrate that the falling revenues were a result of the delays in　manufacturing. Additionally, the author would have to show that knowledge of the properties of metals is a prerequisite⁷ for planning in purchasing metals.

5.  A newspaper publisher is recommending that the price of its paper, The Mercury, be reduced below the price of a competing newspaper, The Bugle⁸. This recommendation responds to a severe decline in circulation of The Mercury during the 5-year period following the introduction of The Bugle. The publisher's line of reasoning is that lowering the price of The Mercury will increase its readership, thereby⁹ increasing profits because a wider readership attracts more advertisers. This line of reasoning is problematic in two critical respects.

      While it is clear that increased circulation would make the paper more attractive to potential advertisers, it is not obvious that lowering the subscription¹⁰ price is the most effective way to gain new readers. The publisher assumes that price is the only factor that caused the decline in readership. But no evidence is given to support this claim. Moreover, given that The Mercury was the established local paper, it is unlikely that such a mass exodus¹¹ of its readers would be explained by subscription price alone.

      There are many other factors that might account for a decline in The Mercury's popularity. For instance, readers might be displeased¹² with the extent and accuracy of its news reporting, or the balance of local to other news coverage¹³. Moreover, it is possible The Mercury has recently changed editors, giving the paper a locally unpopular political perspective. Or perhaps readers are unhappy with the paper's format¹⁴, the timeliness of its feature articles, its comics or advice columns, the extent and accuracy of its local event calendar, or its rate of errors.

      In conclusion, this argument is weak because it depends on an oversimplified assumption about the causal connection between the price of the paper and its popularity. To strengthen the argument, the author must identify and explore relevant factors beyond cost before concluding that lowering subscription prices will increase circulation and, thereby, increase advertising¹⁵ revenues.

6.  In this argument corporations are urged to consider the city of Helios when seeking a new location or new business opportunities. To support this recommendation, the author points out that Helios is the industrial center of the region, providing most of the region's manufacturing jobs and enjoying a lower-than-average unemployment rate. Moreover, it is argued, efforts are currently underway to expand the economic base o' the city by attracting companies that focus on research and development of innovative¹⁶ technologies. This argument is problematic for two reasons.

      To begin with, it is questionable whether the available labor¹⁷ pool in Helios could
support all types of corporations. Given that Helios has attracted mainly industrial and manufacturing companies in the past, it is unlikely that the local pool of prospective¹⁸ employees would be suitable for corporations of other types. For example, the needs of research and development companies would not be met by a labor force trained in manufacturing skills. For this reason, it's unlikely that Helios will be successful in its attempt to attract companies that focus or research and development of innovative technologies.

      Another problem with the available work force is its size. Due to the lower than average unemployment rate in Helios, corporations that require large numbers of workers would not find Helios attractive. The fact that few persons are out of work suggests that new corporations will have to either attract new workers to Helios or Day the existing workers higher wages in order to lure¹⁹ them away from their current jobs. Neither of these alternatives seems enticing²⁰ to companies seeking to relocate.

      In conclusion, the author has not succeeded in providing compelling reasons for selecting Helios as the site for a company wishing to relocate. In fact, the reasons offered function better as reasons for not relocating to Helios. Nor has the author provided compelling reasons for companies seeking new business opportunities to choose Helios