2. The following appeared in a memorandum¹ from the business department of the Apogee² Company.
“When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices (n. 外地办事处) and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping³ the company maintain better supervision⁴ of all employees.”
下面摘自APogee公司的商务部门的备忘录：
当Apogee将它所有的业务部门集中在一处时，它将有比现在更多的利润。因此，Apogee应该关闭它的驻外办公室并从单一场所管理它的所有部门。这样的话，集中会通过削减成本提高利润，并帮助公司更好地对所有员工进行监督。
1.        causal oversimplification: It is imprudent to conclude that the establishment of the field offices is the only reason explaining the decline of the profit.
2.        all things are equal: The success of the centralization of the past does not guarantee the applicability in the future.
3.        either-or-or choice: The  author assumes that the centralization and the establishment of field offices are mutually exclusive alternatives, there is no middle ground between they two. In fact, we can have the field offices under centralized control.
 
In this argument the author concludes that the Apogee Company should close down field offices and conduct all its operations from a single, centralized location because the company had been more profitable in the past when all its operations were in one location. For a couple of reasons, this argument is not very convincing.
First, the author assumes that centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and streamlining supervision of employees. This assumption is never supported with any data or projections⁵. Moreover, the assumption fails to take into account cost increases and inefficiency⁶ that could result from centralization. For instance, company representatives would have to travel to do business in areas formerly⁷ served by a field office, creating travel costs and loss of critical time. In short, this assumption must be supported with a thorough cost-benefit analysis of centralization versus⁸ other possible cost-cutting and/or profit-enhancing strategies.
Second, the only reason offered by the author is the claim that Apogee was more profitable when it had operated from a single, centralized location. But is centralization the only difference relevant to greater past profitability? It is entirely⁹ possible that management has become lax regarding any number of factors that can affect the bottom line (帐本底线) such as inferior products, careless product pricing, inefficient¹⁰ production, poor employee expense account monitoring, ineffective advertising¹¹, sloppy¹² 肥大的buying policies and other wasteful¹³ spending. Unless the author can rule out other factors relevant to diminishing profits, this argument commits the fallacy of assuming that just because one event (decreasing profits) follows another (decentralization), the second event has been caused by the first.
In conclusion, this is a weak argument. To strengthen the conclusion that Apogee should close field offices and centralize, this author must provide a thorough cost-benefit analysis of available alternatives and rule out factors other than decentralization that might be affecting current profits negatively.

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