114. The following appeared in a memorandum¹ from the director of research and development at Ready-to-Ware, a software engineering firm.
“The package of benefits and incentives² that Ready-to-Ware offers to professional staff is too costly³. Our quarterly profits have declined since the package was introduced two years ago, at the time of our incorporation⁴. Moreover, the package had little positive effect, as we have had only marginal success in recruiting and training high-quality professional staff. To become more profitable again, Ready-to-Ware should, therefore, offer the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago and use the savings⁵ to fund our current research and development initiatives.”
一家软件工程公司，Ready-to-Ware的研发经理的备忘录： 
RW给专业人员的利益和激励机制太昂贵了。自从两年前我们组成公司时机制引入，我们的利润下降了1/4，而且，这个机制基本上没有效果，因为我们在招募和训练高水平专业人员方面只获得边际（marginal？）成功。为了再次得到更多的利润，RW应该提供两年前使用的较低的激励机制，并把节余用于研发的开展。
1.  The causal relationship between the benefit package given to the professional staff and the decline of the profit is not guaranteed by the coincidence that the latter occured just after the latter. Other factors that may contribute to the decline in the profit should also be considered and ruled out.
2.  Research and development is a time-consuming process. Two years is not a long enough period to see the result and positive effects.
3.  Even if the package is really too high and caused the declne of profit, it is still imprudent to say that the reduced benefits package that was in place two years ago will definitely work.
 
1. 同时发生并不代表因果，忽略他因
2. 没有提供信息，不知道如果不提供这些会不会得到成功培训
3. 即使是省下钱，也不知是否科研，因为可能因为其他原因导致的利润下降。

In this memorandum the director of research and development of Ready-to-Ware recommends reducing the benefits package offered to employees as a means of increasing profits and funding current research and development initiatives. The director’s line of reasoning is that quarterly profits have declined because of the current benefits package and can be increased by reducing it. Moreover, the director argues that the benefits package had little effect in recruiting and training high-quality employees. The director’s argument is questionable⁶ for several reasons.
To begin with, the director’s reasoning is a classic instance of “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The only evidence put forward to support the claim that the introduction of the benefits package is responsible for the decline in quarterly profits is that the profits declined after the package was introduced. However, this evidence is insufficient⁷ to establish the causal claim in question. Many other factors could bring about the same result. For example, the company may have failed to keep pace with competitors in introducing new products or may have failed to satisfy its customers by providing adequate support services. Until these and other possible factors are ruled out, it is premature⁸ to conclude that the introduction of the benefits package was the cause of the decline in profits.
Next, the director assumes that the benefits package currently offered is responsible for the marginal success Ready-to-Ware has experienced in recruiting and training new high-quality professionals. However, no evidence is offered to support this allegation. Other reasons for Ready-to-Ware’s failure to attract high-quality professionals are not considered. For example, perhaps Ready-to-Ware is not a cutting edge company or is not regarded as a leader in its field. Until these and other possible explanations of the company’s marginal success at recruiting and training employees are examined and eliminated it is folly⁹ to conclude that the benefits package provided to the professional staff is responsible.
In conclusion, the director has failed to provide convincing reasons for reducing the benefits package Ready-to-Ware currently offers its professional staff. To further support the recommendation the director would have to examine and eliminate other possible reasons for the decline in Ready-to-Ware’s quarterly profits and for its lack of success in attracting high-quality professionals.