Unit thirty-four
Future Trend in World Trade

In spite of the difficulties of predicting future trends in world trade, we can specify¹ factors that will be important. Some of these are: population growth; possible scarcity² of commodities; the food and energy situation; pressures to preserve the environment; and international cooperation on political, social, economic, and monetary³ problems.
　　In future trade the key development to watch is the relationship between the industrialized and the developing nations. Third World countries export their mineral deposits and tropical agricultural products, which bring them desired foreign exchange. Tourism has also been greatly responsible for the rapid development of some developing nations. Many Third World nations with high unemployment and low wages have seen an emigration of workers to the developed nations. Western Europe has received millions of such workers from Mediterranean⁴ countries. The developing nations profit when these workers bring their savings⁵ and their acquired technical skills back home. Many developing nations benefit when Western nations establish manufacturing in their countries to take advantage of cheap labor⁶.
　　 As economies mature, economic growth rates tend to level off. The rate of population growth is leveling off today in Western nations. This leveling-off eventually leads to static non-growth markets. A point of saturation⁷ sets in. the Western World will eventually move to a period of relatively⁸ low economic growth, coupled with a high rate of unemployment. A so-called welfare society will emerge. The unemployed¹⁰ in the new welfare society will be taken care of by the employed through generous contributions to the social welfare system.
　　 Political questions remain as to the world’s future. We can only speculate as to whether organized markets Such as the Common Market and Council for Mutual¹¹ Economic Assistance could eventually merge⁹. In the present political climate, this would seem impossible, although some cooperation agreements are already in effect. Obviously a merger¹² between the Western and eastern European markets would greatly enhance world trade.
　　 International monetary cooperation well have a significant impact on future trade. If the IMF countries are not able to agree upon a new international monetary order in the years to come, international trade may become too risky¹³ for some companies to get involved in. If the IMF is unable to create sufficient international liquidity¹⁴ reserves in the future, there may not be enough liquidity to sustain growth in trade.
　　 However, growing international consultation¹⁵ and cooperation in economic, monetary, and political matters will certainly contribute to the flourishing of world trade for years to come.

specify vt.具体说明,具体指定
specification¹⁶ n.1.规格,规范 2.明确说明
[联想词]               denote vt.1.意思是 2.表示,是…的标志
               indicate vt.1.标示,指示 2.表明,示意
               indicative a.1.标示的,指示的 2.陈述的,直陈的

commodity n.商品,货物

tropic n.1.回归线 2.热带地区

unemployment n.失业,失业人数
[联想词]               redundant¹⁷ a.1.被解雇的 2.多余的,过剩的

emigrate vi.移居外国
emigration n.1.移居外国 2.移民
migrate vi.1.迁徙,移栖 2.移居,迁移
migrant n.1.移居者,移民 2.候鸟,迁徙动物

profit n.利润,收益 vt.有益于,有利于 vi.得益
profitable a.有利可图的,有益的

rate n.1.速度,进度 2.比率,率 vt.1.估价,评估 2.给…定级,把…列为
rating n.1.等级,评级,评定结果 2.收视率,收听率