The huge shock to many of the world's biggest economies from the coronavirus pandemic may not be quite as bad as economists feared just a few months ago.

 

新冠肺炎疫情对世界上许多大型经济体的巨大冲击，可能没有几个月前经济学家担心的那么严重。

 

In a report published on Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development upgraded its forecast for global economic output this year, noting that while declines were still "unprecedented in recent history," the outlook has improved slightly since June.

 

The Paris-based agency said it now expects the world economy to shrink by 4.5% in 2020 before expanding by 5% in 2021. Previously, the OECD said it thought the global economy would contract by 6% this year and grow 5.2% next year.

 

But the agency, which represents the world's biggest economies, warned that headline figures mask major discrepancies. While it significantly boosted its 2020 forecasts for the United States and China, and slightly raised the outlook for Europe, the OECD lowered its expectations for developing countries such as Mexico, Argentina, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

 

OECD economists said the downgrades reflected "the prolonged spread of the virus, high levels of poverty and informality, and stricter confinement measures for an extended period."

 

China is the only G20 country for which output is projected to rise in 2020, with its economy growing 1.8%, compared to a 3.8% contraction in the United States and a 7.9% decline among the 19 countries that use the euro. Beijing reported Tuesday that retail sales were higher in August than they had been the previous year -- the first time sales have increased in 2020.

 

The OECD noted the earlier timing of the country's outbreak and its ability to swiftly bring it under control, as well as policies that paved the way for a rapid bounce back in activity, pointing to strong infrastructure investment in particular.

 

Meanwhile, South Africa's economy could shrink by 11.5% this year, according to the OECD. Mexico and India's economies are both on track for a 10.2% contraction. That's worse than the forecasts for developed economies with the exception of Italy, which is due to shrink 10.5% after it was hit hard by the virus.