China's equity bubble is building, may burst_财经新闻

China's equity bubble is building, may burst

文章来源：文章作者：发布时间：2007-05-08 07:22 字体： [大中小]　进入论坛

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May 7 - China's all-time high equity¹ market needs "cool water and cool heads" after taking a 7-day Golden Week breather, otherwise the stock bubble runs the danger of a quick bust², experts said.

Since its nine-percent correction in late February, the Shanghai A-share equities³ have now moved back up more than 40 percent, and no letup is seen on the horizon, buoyed⁴ by a series of successful initial public offerings as the ranks of investors⁵ swell⁶ at over 200,000 a day. There are now more than 91 million accounts held at brokers⁷ or mutual⁸ funds.

Xia Bing, director of the State Council's Development and Research Center's Finance Department, warned at a recent CCTV talk show program, that the stock market bubble is building. He and a string of other economists⁹ suggested investors take extra caution before jumping onto the bandwagon.

And, analysts¹⁰ at BCA Research put it in a recent note to its customers: "We have no doubt if China's market continues to spike¹¹ up, the stage will be set for a very violent drop."

In late April, the People's Bank of China ordered the ratio of commercial banks deposits at the central bank be raised to 11 percent, but the measure failed to dampen the bullish market. The surge has continued. Many economists are anticipating another interest rate hike in May or June to stonewall the soar.

Some critics argue the way the mainland IPO market is being run systematically¹² fans the irrational¹³ expectations of a huge number of novice¹⁴ investors with the promise of easy and quick money, storing up trouble ahead.

It is widely believed that mainland investors are mostly momentum-driven and ignorant of valuations, but they can see the IPO market is serving up a bargain. While stocks in the A-share market trade at stiff premiums¹⁵ to Hong Kong, dual-listed equities often continue to list at a discount in the mainland.

The situation is due to the influence of the powerful China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) which micromanages new listings, sets final pricing of IPOs and subsequent fund-raisings as well as deciding who gets to list, analysts said.

For example, Bank of Communications recently listed at 7-20% cheaper in Shanghai than in Hong Kong, following a similar practice for China Life Insurance and Ping An Insurance.

In most other competitive markets, pricing is a commercial compromise based on what companies think they can get and what investment banks think the market can take.

A standard move these days is for the CRSR to force companies to set a lower price on their IPOs in the hope of a strong stock market performance. This has undoubtedly¹⁶ contributed to the general market euphoria. The average price-to-earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is now over 50.

In the absence of traditional measures to cool the market such as significantly raising interest rates, another solution the authorities, in the hope to achieve a stronger and more stable market, are eyeing to bolster¹⁷ the stock market is by adding more quality companies to soak up excess liquidity¹⁸.

The authorities have inspired mainland companies to list on domestic bourses rather than Hong Kong's, it has further encouraged overseas quality companies, such as the venerable HSBC Holdings to list A-shares in the mainland.

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收听单词发音

1 equity
n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票
参考例句：
They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。 To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

2 bust
vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部
参考例句：
I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。 She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

3 equities
普通股，股票
参考例句：
These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。 They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

4 buoyed
v.使浮起( buoy的过去式和过去分词 )；支持；为…设浮标；振奋…的精神
参考例句：
Buoyed by their win yesterday the team feel confident of further success. 在昨天胜利的鼓舞下，该队有信心再次获胜。 His encouragement buoyed her up during that difficult period. 他的鼓励使她在那段困难时期恢复了乐观的情绪。来自《简明英汉词典》

5 investors
n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )
参考例句：
a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子 a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

6 swell
vi.膨胀，肿胀；增长，增强
参考例句：
The waves had taken on a deep swell.海浪汹涌。 His injured wrist began to swell.他那受伤的手腕开始肿了。

7 brokers
n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…
参考例句：
The firm in question was Alsbery & Co., whiskey brokers. 那家公司叫阿尔斯伯里公司，经销威士忌。来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹 From time to time a telephone would ring in the brokers' offices. 那两排经纪人房间里不时响着叮令的电话。来自子夜部分

8 mutual
adj.相互的，彼此的；共同的，共有的
参考例句：
We must pull together for mutual interest.我们必须为相互的利益而通力合作。 Mutual interests tied us together.相互的利害关系把我们联系在一起。

9 economists
n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )
参考例句：
The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。 Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。来自《简明英汉词典》

10 analysts
分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )
参考例句：
City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。 I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

11 spike
n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效
参考例句：
The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。 They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

12 systematically
adv.有系统地
参考例句：
This government has systematically run down public services since it took office.这一屆政府自上台以来系统地削减了公共服务。 The rainforest is being systematically destroyed.雨林正被系统地毀灭。

13 irrational
adj.无理性的，失去理性的
参考例句：
After taking the drug she became completely irrational.她在吸毒后变得完全失去了理性。 There are also signs of irrational exuberance among some investors.在某些投资者中是存在非理性繁荣的征象的。

14 novice
adj.新手的，生手的
参考例句：
As a novice writer,this is something I'm interested in.作为初涉写作的人，我对此很感兴趣。 She realized that she was a novice.她知道自己初出茅庐。

15 premiums
n.费用( premium的名词复数 )；保险费；额外费用；（商品定价、贷款利息等以外的）加价
参考例句：
He paid premiums on his life insurance last year. 他去年付了人寿保险费。来自《现代英汉综合大词典》 Moves are afoot to increase car insurance premiums. 现正在酝酿提高汽车的保险费。来自《简明英汉词典》

16 undoubtedly
adv.确实地，无疑地
参考例句：
It is undoubtedly she who has said that.这话明明是她说的。 He is undoubtedly the pride of China.毫无疑问他是中国的骄傲。

17 bolster
n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励
参考例句：
The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。 He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

18 liquidity
n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产
参考例句：
The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。 The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

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