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Chinanews, Beijing, June 26 – On June 25, the central parity1 rate of Renminbi to US dollar reached 7.6192. Over the first half of this year, Renminbi value has risen by nearly 2.5% to the dollar. The value of Renminbi rose by 5% to the dollar for the whole of last year. It is very likely that the value of Renminbi might grow by another 5% this year. According to some experts, when Renminbi appreciation2 rate reaches 5%, the large trade surplus might continue in the short run, the China Securities Journal reported.
Over the past two months, Renminbi appreciation process has quickened. Traders predict that the central parity rate of Renminbi might hit the 7.6 mark to the dollar in the last trading week in June. If this is the case, it takes only two months for Renminbi to increase from 7.7 point to 7.6 point. Since the beginning of this year, apparently3 Renminbi appreciation process has displayed several features. In January and February, the appreciation process quickened; in March and April, the appreciation process slowed down a little bit. Some adjustments were also made in March and April. Starting from May, the appreciation process reached the fastest speed ever since China kicked off the Renminbi exchange regime. Over the past six months, Renminbi value against the dollar rose from 7.8073 to 7.6192. The appreciation rate has reached 2.47%. Since last June, Renminbi value to the dollar has also appreciated by 5%. Based on the principle that such appreciation process will go on steadily4 and within a controllable range, it can be expected that the current appreciation trend will continue during the later half of the year. Right now, market analysts5 all agree that Renminbi might probably rise by 5% this year. The Non-deliverable Forward (NDF) one-year contract for Renminbi ranges between 7.26-7.27, with an appreciation rate also reaching 5%. In July 2006 when China had kicked off the Renminbi exchange rate regime for one year, Renminbi value had already increased by 3.44% (on the day when China kicked off the exchange rate regime, Renminbi value rose by 2%). In 2006, Renminb value had risen by 3.35%. Now, its value further rose by 5%. It is clear to see that Renminbi appreciation process has become faster.
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