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Chinanews, Shanghai, Oct 13 – In the next six to nine months, Chinese economy might continue to remain robust1. Facing the inflation and ever-increasing assets prices, the central bank might consider further raising the interest rate several times, according to the prediction made by Standard Chartered Bank in its monthly economic review issued on Wednesday.
In future, the major financial risks might come from the sudden sall of shares and house properties in the stock and real estate markets, the deterioration2 of credit loan release resulting from sluggish3 export, and the trade protectionism from the United States, the report says. Although in China, consumption, investment and capital market do not share a close relation as in other mature markets, the sudden drop of assets prices might still bring about severe negative influences on the people. It will greatly affect the consumption and commercial confidence in cities. In predicting the economic growth, Wang Zhihao, a renowned4 economist5 at Standard Chartered Bank, said that over the next six to nine months to come, economic growth rate might maintain at upwards6 of 11%. However, starting from the second half of next year, economic growth rate might start to slow down, mainly due to the decreased export growth, weakened business confidence and the drop of companies’ profitability. As a result, the global large commodity goods market might react negatively to such changes. However, Chinese economy might realize a “soft landing,” according to Wang. He predicted that the current interest raise might reach its peak at the second quarter in 2008. By then, economic growth will start to slow down and worries about inflation and assets prices hike will gradually disappear. By the second half of 2008, economic growth will slow down and government fiscal7 policy will become even more important. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that in 2007, Chinese GDP growth will reach 11.5% and 10.8% in 2008. By the end of 2007, China’s foreign exchange reserves will reach 1.61 trillion US dollars and in 2008, 2.16 trillion US dollars.
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