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Chinanews, Beijing, Oct 23 – “It can be expected that as the CPI started to decline in September and economy turns to grow smoothly1, macro economic performance for the third quarter will turn out to be good,” said Shen Minggao, chief economist2 at Citibank's greater China region on Sunday, two days before China will publicize its economic data for the third quarter this year, the Beijing Morning Post reported.
On Tuesday, the National Statistics Bureau will publicize the economic data for the third quarter of this year. When the CPI had kept climbing for several months consecutively3 and when China's economic growth rate reached 11.1% for the first quarter and further accelerated to 11.9% during the second quarter, many people were deeply concerned with how the economy would perform for the third quarter, since such economic situation would affect the economic performance for the whole year and play an important role for the central government to adopt its macro economic measures in future. Shen said as China's trade surplus would further decline in the third quarter, the country would see a moderate, or even a declining economic growth rate for the third quarter. “Our latest research makes us believe that GDP growth rate for the third quater will decline to 11.3%. If economists4 held differed views for the economic performance for the second quater, I believe their economic predictions for the third quarter will become more consistent,” Shen said. In fact, since the third quarter, major economic data, including industrial added value, the actual consumption level and trade volume have been all in a downward trend. As a result, economic growth rate, which has remained at a high level for months, has begun to show signs of dropping. And Citibank is not the only financial institution to hold an optimistic view on the economic performance in the third quarter. The State Information Center (SIC) and the National Economic Research Center at Peking University have both prodicted that economic growth rate will start to drop during the third quarter. SIC recently predicted economic growth rate for the third quarter to reach 11.4%, lower than the 11.9% of the second quarter. In addition, the CPI, which had aroused people's attention for several months in the past, has also started to drop. Last week, deputy director of the State Development and Reform Commission Zhu Zhixin announced that in September, CPI grew by 6.2%, declining by 0.3 percentage point compared with the 6.5% growth rate in August. As China increased its supply of meat, eggs and other foods, Shen predicted that the CPI would continue to decline in the following months. He further expected that the CPI for the whole year would reach 3.5%-4%. Despite the decline in the CPI, Shen still predicted that China would further raise the interest rate this year. “Although CPI growth rate has reached its peak, still such growth rate is expected to touch 4% for the whole year. In that case, it is very possible for the central bank to raise the interest rate for the sixth time this year,” Shen noted5.
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