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Chinanews, Beijing, Dec. 21 - A recent investigative report on real estate market performance in Beijing shows that Beijing's real estate investment market has begun to display some bubbles.
The report reaches the conclusion based on an international criterion, which reflects market performance in the real estate sector1 by referring to the ratio of the selling price of second-hand2 houses to their related house rental3 fees. According to this criterion, housing performance in real estate market in Beijing nearly touches the “alerting” line. The report was conducted by a professional real estate agency in Beijing after investigating the selling and rental information concerning 10,000 second-hand houses in Beijing. The houses under investigation4 included those located in the eight downtown areas and those in the four main surburban areas, namely Daxing, Tongzhou, Shunyi, and Changping. The information is said to be representative, accurate and detailed5. In 2006, commodity price in Beijing continues to climb. In the housing rental market, however, the rental fees have not risen much. As a result, the ratio of the sales price of second-hand houses to their housing rental fees has become larger. Statistics show that in 2006, the average rental fee for an ordinary one-bedroom apartment house is 1,526 yuan per month, while the average selling price of an ordinary one-apartment house reaches 370,000 yuan, the ratio between the two being 242:1. For a two-bedroom apartment house, the rental fee is 1,751 yuan per month and its related sales price reaches 490,000 yuan, the ratio between the two being 280:1. In addition, the rental fee of a three-bedroom apartment house is about 2,343 yuan per month and its related sales price is 670,000 yuan, the ratio between the two reaching 286:1. Accoring to a common international standard, real estate performance is normal when the ratio stays between 200:1 and 300:1. If the figure is below 200:1, it means that the real estate market value is underestimated and investors6 can make good gains when making investment at this time; if the figure exceeds 300:1, it indicates that bubbles have emerged in real estate market and investment won’t be profitable. Based on this information, the agency concluded that the ratio in Beijing nearly touched the alerting line and bubbles might exist in the real estate market in Beijing. When the agency used another commonly adopted criterion to test whether there were any bubbles existing in the property market, it reached a similar conclusion.
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